Editing UBS Group AG
The edit can be undone. Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then publish the changes below to finish undoing the edit.
Latest revision | Your text | ||
Line 36: | Line 36: | ||
UBS is a preeminent global financial advisory and solutions provider, catering to private, institutional, and corporate clients across the world, with a particular emphasis on Swiss private clients. With a widespread presence in major financial centers, our recent integration with Credit Suisse enhances our capabilities, offering clients elevated value, a broader spectrum of services, and an extended global reach, reaffirming UBS's role as a driver of financial achievement.<ref>https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do.html</ref> | UBS is a preeminent global financial advisory and solutions provider, catering to private, institutional, and corporate clients across the world, with a particular emphasis on Swiss private clients. With a widespread presence in major financial centers, our recent integration with Credit Suisse enhances our capabilities, offering clients elevated value, a broader spectrum of services, and an extended global reach, reaffirming UBS's role as a driver of financial achievement.<ref>https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do.html</ref> | ||
== Operations == | == Operations == | ||
Line 83: | Line 81: | ||
== Markets == | == Markets == | ||
== Competition == | == Competition == | ||
Line 168: | Line 157: | ||
UBS Group AG's financial performance exhibited stability over the years, with modest revenue fluctuations and steady net income growth. Despite the dynamic economic landscape, the company's revenue remained above $30 billion from 2019 to 2022. This consistent growth suggests effective management strategies. Further analysis of factors influencing these trends would provide a more comprehensive understanding. | UBS Group AG's financial performance exhibited stability over the years, with modest revenue fluctuations and steady net income growth. Despite the dynamic economic landscape, the company's revenue remained above $30 billion from 2019 to 2022. This consistent growth suggests effective management strategies. Further analysis of factors influencing these trends would provide a more comprehensive understanding. | ||
[[File:Financials UBS.png|center|thumb|500x500px]] | [[File:Financials UBS.png|center|thumb|500x500px]] | ||
== Disocunted Cash Flow (DCF) == | |||
Outlined below is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis for UBS Group AG. The computations have been performed using Bloomberg Terminal. | |||
'''Assumptions:''' | |||
* Revenue Growth Rate: 0% | |||
* Operating Margin: 28.87% | |||
* Tax Rate: 21% | |||
* Discount Rate (WACC): 8.19% | |||
* Terminal Growth Rate: 2% | |||
==== Forecast Period: 5 years Calculate ==== | |||
==== Free Cash Flows (FCF) ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Year | |||
!Revenue | |||
!Operating Income | |||
!EBT | |||
!Taxes | |||
!NOPAT | |||
!Depreciation & Amortization | |||
!Operating Cash Flow | |||
!CAPEX | |||
!Working Capital Changes | |||
!Free Cash Flow | |||
|- | |||
|2022 | |||
|$33,270,000,000 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$2,018,167,879 | |||
|$7,591,202,021 | |||
|$2,061,000,000 | |||
|$9,652,202,021 | |||
| -$1,643,000,000 | |||
|$18,228,000,000 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|- | |||
|2023 | |||
|$33,270,000,000 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$2,018,167,879 | |||
|$7,591,202,021 | |||
|$2,061,000,000 | |||
|$9,652,202,021 | |||
| -$1,643,000,000 | |||
|$18,228,000,000 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|- | |||
|2024 | |||
|$33,270,000,000 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$2,018,167,879 | |||
|$7,591,202,021 | |||
|$2,061,000,000 | |||
|$9,652,202,021 | |||
| -$1,643,000,000 | |||
|$18,228,000,000 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|- | |||
|2025 | |||
|$33,270,000,000 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$2,018,167,879 | |||
|$7,591,202,021 | |||
|$2,061,000,000 | |||
|$9,652,202,021 | |||
| -$1,643,000,000 | |||
|$18,228,000,000 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|- | |||
|2026 | |||
|$33,270,000,000 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$9,609,369,900 | |||
|$2,018,167,879 | |||
|$7,591,202,021 | |||
|$2,061,000,000 | |||
|$9,652,202,021 | |||
| -$1,643,000,000 | |||
|$18,228,000,000 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|} | |||
==== Discount Cash Flows ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Year | |||
!FCF | |||
!PV Factor | |||
!Discounted FCF | |||
|- | |||
|2022 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|0.9252 | |||
|$27,024,994,009 | |||
|- | |||
|2023 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|0.8526 | |||
|$24,907,452,724 | |||
|- | |||
|2024 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|0.7844 | |||
|$22,962,979,085 | |||
|- | |||
|2025 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|0.7202 | |||
|$20,927,732,983 | |||
|- | |||
|2026 | |||
|$29,237,202,021 | |||
|0.6597 | |||
|$19,313,711,550 | |||
|- | |||
|TV | |||
|$493,077,739,961 | |||
|0.6597 | |||
|$325,224,847,288 | |||
|} | |||
==== Calculation Results ==== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Calculation Results | |||
!Values | |||
|- | |||
|Equity Value | |||
|$311,028,340,331 | |||
|- | |||
|Per Share Value | |||
|$36.43 | |||
|- | |||
|Current Stock Value | |||
|$23.73 | |||
|- | |||
!Upside | |||
|'''53.5%''' | |||
|} | |||
==== Sensitivity analysis ==== | |||
<nowiki>{| class="wikitable"</nowiki> | |||
|- | |||
! Sensitivity Analysis !! 0.2% !! 0.7% !! 1.2% !! 1.7% !! 2.2% !! 2.7% !! 3.2% | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 7.0% | $33.77 | $34.60 | $35.46 | $36.37 | $37.33 | $38.34 | $39.41 | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 7.5% | $32.98 | $33.70 | $34.46 | $35.27 | $36.13 | $37.04 | $38.00 | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 8.0% | $32.24 | $32.83 | $33.47 | $34.16 | $34.89 | $35.68 | $36.51 | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 8.5% | $31.55 | $32.01 | $32.52 | $33.08 | $33.70 | $34.37 | $35.10 | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 9.0% | $30.90 | $31.26 | $31.67 | $32.12 | $32.63 | $33.18 | $33.79 | |||
|- | |||
! WACC 9.5% | $30.28 | $30.55 | $30.87 | $31.24 | $31.66 | $32.13 | $32.67 | |||
|} | |||
== Valuation == | == Valuation == | ||
Line 202: | Line 366: | ||
|}In our analysis of Airbus's valuation, we employed two distinct methods: | |}In our analysis of Airbus's valuation, we employed two distinct methods: | ||
*'''Discounted Cashflow''': By employing the perpetuity growth approach, we ascertain that UBS Group AG's implied share price stands at '''$36.43'''. Consequently, this yields an approximated upside potential of '''53.5%'''. | *'''Discounted Cashflow''': By employing the perpetuity growth approach, we ascertain that UBS Group AG's implied share price stands at '''$36.43'''. Consequently, this yields an approximated upside potential of '''53.5%'''. | ||
*'''Trading Comps''': | *'''Trading Comps''': | ||
===What's the expected return of an Investment in the Company?=== | ===What's the expected return of an Investment in the Company?=== | ||
According to Stockhub users' projections utilizing our DCF model and prevailing market value, an investment in Airbus is anticipated to yield an approximate '''42%''' return over the next five years. In simpler terms, a £1,000 investment in Safran is expected to increase to £1,420.00 in five years. | |||
If an investment achieves its projected return of '''8.4%''', which aligns with a 'suitable' 8% annual return over a five-year period, it is deemed a viable choice for investing in the company. | |||
== Monte-Carlo Simulations == | == Monte-Carlo Simulations == | ||
Line 582: | Line 745: | ||
|18,121,000 | |18,121,000 | ||
|} | |} | ||
__INDEX__ | __INDEX__ | ||
<references /> | <references /> |