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The company also has a presence in the Movies and Entertainment industry through its Ubisoft Film & Television division, which has the mission "to bring Ubisoft’s award-winning games into new areas of entertainment and to create original stories set in the world, culture and community of gaming"<ref>https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/entertainment/film-tv</ref>. The division has a pipeline of projects, including the films “Just Dance” (Screen Gems), the live-action “Assassin’s Creed” (Netflix) series, the current “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+) series and “Rabbids Invasion” (season 4 on Netflix).<ref>https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/entertainment/film-tv</ref>     
The company also has a presence in the Movies and Entertainment industry through its Ubisoft Film & Television division, which has the mission "to bring Ubisoft’s award-winning games into new areas of entertainment and to create original stories set in the world, culture and community of gaming"<ref>https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/entertainment/film-tv</ref>. The division has a pipeline of projects, including the films “Just Dance” (Screen Gems), the live-action “Assassin’s Creed” (Netflix) series, the current “Mythic Quest” (Apple TV+) series and “Rabbids Invasion” (season 4 on Netflix).<ref>https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/entertainment/film-tv</ref>     


Ubisoft has a “high-value licensing partnership on mobile” with Tencent announced last July, where Tencent will be the publisher of the Assassin’s Creed mobile game set in China. Ubisoft also has a collaboration with Playcrab; and collaboration with Disney and Lucasfilm Games.      
Ubisoft Entertainment SA has a strategic partnership with Tencent and Playcrab; and collaboration with Disney and Lucasfilm Games.    
[[File:Ubisoft-HD-scaled.jpg|left|615x615px]]       
[[File:Ubisoft-HD-scaled.jpg|left|615x615px]]       


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Ubisoft has a unique production organisation in the video game industry, which allows the company to produce and own all of its most significant franchises, enter new market segments organically, and release high quality new content and games on a regular basis. This has allowed the organisation to grow and benefit from recurring revenues. Therefore, Ubisoft has sought to take advantage of their position for the last decade and expand their portfolio of franchises with titles such as ''Just Dance'', ''Brawlhalla'', and ''The Crew''.  
Ubisoft has a unique production organisation in the video game industry, which allows the company to produce and own all of its most significant franchises, enter new market segments organically, and release high quality new content and games on a regular basis. This has allowed the organisation to grow and benefit from recurring revenues. Therefore, Ubisoft has sought to take advantage of their position for the last decade and expand their portfolio of franchises with titles such as ''Just Dance'', ''Brawlhalla'', and ''The Crew''.  


However, Ubisoft has recently chosen to shift their focus onto their core franchises with emphasis on long-term player engagement through long-lasting Live games. This means the company will be focusing on franchises that have already been proven to be successful and will grant them greater control over their timing and quality of releases, reducing the perceived execution risks of their pipeline. This has been the top concern for investors, which has resulted in Ubisoft trading at a steep discount relative to peers.<ref>Ubisoft Entertainment SA. (2023) Universal registration Document 2023. https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/company/about-us/investors</ref>
However, Ubisoft has recently chosen to shift their focus onto their core franchises with emphasis on long-term player engagement through long-lasting Live games. This means the company will be focusing on franchises that have already been proven to be successful and will grant them greater control over their timing and quality of releases, reducing the perceived execution risks of their pipeline. This has been something Ubisoft has struggled with in the past and is the top concern for investors, which has resulted in Ubisoft trading at a steep discount relative to peers.<ref>Ubisoft Entertainment SA. (2023) Universal registration Document 2023. https://www.ubisoft.com/en-us/company/about-us/investors</ref>
[[File:Steam's_concurrent_players.png|alt=|left|550x550px|''Top 12 games by Steam's current players'']]
[[File:Steam's concurrent players.png|alt=|550x550px|''Top 12 games by Steam's current players''<ref>https://steamcharts.com/top</ref>|left]]




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The above strategy was showcased at last year's Ubisoft Forward event, where the company announced a considerable addition of new content (e.g., quests, events etc) within its most popular franchise, ''Assassin's Creed.'' The franchise is one of Ubisoft's longest lasting and most valuable, with the last three entries being released on time and at a respectable quality. Furthermore, the last release, ''Assassin's Creed Valhalla (2020)'', has generated over $1bn in revenue for the company through successfully implementing and monetising a live-service model, which adds post-launch content. This is a key point for Ubisoft, as the company's new IPs, (e.g., ''Skull & Bones'') and non-core IPs (e.g., ''Prince of Persia''), have been delayed numerous times and have longer development timelines, which burdens cash flows and increases execution risks. Therefore, as Ubisoft shift their focus onto core IPs (''Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Tom Clancy's'', etc) , perceived execution risks and cost inefficiencies should reduce over time. While it may take significant time for Ubisoft to successfully implement this strategy, Ubisoft has one of the largest development capabilities in the world and a strong track record with their core IPs.


The above chart shows the top twelve games by Steam's current players, clearly showing a player preference towards service and living games.<ref>https://steamcharts.com/top</ref>
Ubisoft's new strategy was showcased at last year's Ubisoft Forward event, where the company announced a considerable addition of new content (e.g., quests, events etc) within its most popular franchise, ''Assassin's Creed.'' The franchise is one of Ubisoft's longest lasting and most valuable, with the last three entries being released on time and at a respectable quality. Furthermore, the last release, ''Assassin's Creed Valhalla (2020)'', has generated over $1bn in revenue for the company through successfully implementing and monetising a live-service model, which adds post-launch content. This is a key point for Ubisoft, as the company's new IPs, (e.g., ''Skull & Bones'') and non-core IPs (e.g., ''Prince of Persia''), have been delayed numerous times and have longer development timelines, which burdens cash flows and increases execution risks. Therefore, as Ubisoft shift their focus onto core IPs (''Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Tom Clancy's'', etc) , perceived execution risks and cost inefficiencies should reduce over time. While it may take significant time for Ubisoft to successfully implement this strategy, Ubisoft has one of the largest development capabilities in the world and a strong track record with their core IPs.
=== Management Team ===
=== Management Team ===
'''Chief Executive Officer, Chairman - Yves Guillemot'''[[File:Yves.jpg|left|thumb]]
'''Chief Executive Officer, Chairman - Yves Guillemot'''[[File:Yves.jpg|left|thumb]]
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'''Chief Portfolio Officer - Sandrine Caloiaro'''[[File:Sandrine caloiaro jpg 800x0 crop upscale q85.jpg|left|thumb]]
'''Chief Portfolio Officer - Sandrine Caloiaro'''[[File:Sandrine caloiaro jpg 800x0 crop upscale q85.jpg|left|thumb]]




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==== <u>Overall</u> ====
==== <u>Overall</u> ====
Overall, the reaction to these three games is positive, with Star Wars Outlaws especially capturing the imagination of gamers. Delivery is going to be challenging with so many projects coming quite close to each other. But it is hard to dwell on negatives when the community has reacted pretty well to the major games on show at Ubisoft Forward.<ref>Barclays. (2023) Ubisoft Entertainment SA: Star Wars Outlaws particularly well received at Ubisoft Forward</ref>
Overall, the reaction to these three games is positive, with Star Wars Outlaws especially capturing the imagination of gamers. Delivery is going to be challenging with so many projects coming quite close to each other. But it is hard to dwell on negatives when the community has reacted pretty well to the major games on show at Ubisoft Forward.<ref>Barclays. (2023) Ubisoft Entertainment SA: Star Wars Outlaws particularly well received at Ubisoft Forward</ref>
== Film and Television ==
Alongside its strategy to refocus on core franchises, Ubisoft are pursuing an ambitious strategy to capitalise on the power of transmedia synergies, evident through a significant partnership with Netflix. The collaboration with Netflix aims to create multiple TV series based on their core franchises, which include popular titles like Assassin's Creed, The Division, Splinter Cell, and Far Cry, among others.
Although detailed information about these TV series projects is scarce at this stage, Ubisoft sees this move as a crucial step in solidifying their core assets and tapping into the potential of transmedia synergies. It's a well-established fact that transmedia ventures can substantially enhance the value of a franchise and indirectly impact game sales. Recent successes of game-based TV series, such as The Witcher, Cyberpunk 2077 (developed by Netflix and owned by CD Projekt), and The Last of Us (produced by Sony and HBO), have demonstrated this phenomenon.
For instance, the TV series adaptation of The Last of Us led to a remarkable 239% surge in sales for The Last of Us: Part 1 (released in 2013), causing it to re-enter the UK sales charts at an impressive No. 20 spot. Similarly, The Witcher 3 experienced a staggering 554% increase in physical sales following the launch of its TV series on Netflix, as reported by the NPD Group.
Ubisoft's partnership with Netflix to develop TV series based on their core franchises represents a strategic move aimed at not only bolstering franchise value but also driving game sales through the indirect influence of transmedia ventures.<ref>Deutsche Bank. (2023) FY-23 Preview: Closing chapter</ref>
[[File:Assassin's Creed Netflix.webp|left|500x500px]]


== Market ==
== Market ==
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As Ubisoft has a film & television division, It can also be argued that given the company's mission around television, the total addressable market includes the film and television market; and research suggests that as of April 2023, the estimated size of that market is $283.5 billion, up from $267.61 billion in 2022. the film & television market is also estimated to grow to $344.84 billion in 2027.<ref>https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5781177/film-video-global-market-report#src-pos-6</ref> Therefore, Ubisoft's total current addressable market can be estimated to be $535.6 billion.
As Ubisoft has a film & television division, It can also be argued that given the company's mission around television, the total addressable market includes the film and television market; and research suggests that as of April 2023, the estimated size of that market is $283.5 billion, up from $267.61 billion in 2022. the film & television market is also estimated to grow to $344.84 billion in 2027.<ref>https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5781177/film-video-global-market-report#src-pos-6</ref> Therefore, Ubisoft's total current addressable market can be estimated to be $535.6 billion.
=== Serviceable Available Market ===
Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global car market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $1.0 trillion.


=== Serviceable Obtainable Market ===
=== Serviceable Obtainable Market ===
Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the US and European gaming market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of June 2023, in terms of revenue, is $139.59 billion.
Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the US car market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $262 billion.


== Competition ==
== Competition ==


=== Conglomerates ===
== Partnerships ==
'''Microsoft and Sony'''
 
Ubisoft is a prominent game developer and publisher known for franchises like Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, Watch Dogs, and Tom Clancy's series. However, the gaming industry is dominated by the 'Big 3' video game companies Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo. They accounted for 29% of total gaming industry revenue in 2022, with Sony having the largest market share with a gaming revenue of $28.2 billion compared to Microsoft's $16.2 billion. The major advantage these players have is that they own and operate the major gaming platforms: the Nintendo Switch is one of the best-selling gaming consoles of all time, and current-gen consoles Sony’s PlayStation 5 and Microsoft’s Xbox Series X/S were both released in November 2020 and are very competitive. To date, the PlayStation 5 has sold almost 38 million units, compared to nearly 22 million Xbox X/S console sales. However, Nintendo would not be a competitor for Ubisoft as they exclusively operate on the Nintendo Switch.<ref>https://www.statista.com/topics/868/video-games/#topicOverview</ref> Alongside being hardware manufacturers, Sony publishes iconic franchises like God of War, Uncharted, and The Last of Us, and Microsoft develop and publish notable franchises such as Halo, Forza Motorsport, and Gears of War.
 
'''Tencent'''
 
Tencent is a technology conglomerate based in China, and it is one of the world's largest and most valuable companies. While Tencent has diverse business interests, including social media, entertainment, and technology, it has a strong presence in the gaming industry through its gaming division, Tencent Games. Tencent is known for its investment strategy, where it acquires stakes in various game development companies around the world, giving it a vast and diverse gaming portfolio. Tencent has a considerable focus on mobile gaming, which has become a massive segment of the gaming market. Furthermore, Tencent has a strong presence in the online multiplayer gaming space, particularly through its ownership of Riot Games and its flagship title, League of Legends, which is a major player in the esports scene. However, Ubisoft has traditionally focused on PC and console gaming, setting it apart from Tencent. Tencent reported a gaming revenue of $13.9 billion
 
=== Pure-play Competitors ===
'''Activision Blizzard'''
 
Activision Blizzard is another major player in the industry, responsible for iconic franchises such as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Candy Crush, and Overwatch. They have a strong foothold in the first-person shooter, and online multiplayer markets, and are considered the most dominant pure-play gaming company across platforms, which overlaps with Ubisoft's games. Activision Blizzard is currently in the process of being acquired by Microsoft. Activision Blizzard reported a revenue of $7.36 billion in 2022.
 
'''Electronic Arts (EA)'''
 
Electronic Arts is one of the largest and most established video game publishers in the world. It is an American company and It has a diverse portfolio of franchises, including FIFA, Madden NFL, Battlefield, and The Sims. EA's extensive resources and successful sports titles often compete with Ubisoft's offerings. EA announced in November 2022 that it had struck a partnership with the film studio Marvel to develop at least three action oriented games. With Marvel being responsible for producing some of the most famous movies such as Avengers and Thor, the possibilities for these titles are endless. EA reported a revenue of $7.29 billion in 2022.
 
'''Take-Two Interactive'''
 
Take-Two Interactive is an American firm that owns a variety of game development platforms. is known for its Grand Theft Auto series, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K. It focuses on both open-world and sports genres, presenting competition for Ubisoft's various game offerings. Take-Two Interactive grew its mobile platform with its acquisition of game developer Zynga for $12 billion. The firm's gaming pipeline is one of the largest in the industry, as it is expected to release up to 38 mobile games by the end of 2025. Take-Two Interactive reported a revenue of $4.3 billion in 2022.
 
'''Square Enix'''
 
Square Enix is a Japanese company with a long and storied history in the gaming industry, with a global presence and a strong focus on narrative-driven games. Some of their most famous franchises include Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Tomb Raider, and NieR, among others. Square Enix reported a revenue of $2.6 billion in 2022.
 
'''CD Projekt Red'''
 
Known for The Witcher series and Cyberpunk 2077, CD Projekt Red is a rising competitor, especially in the realm of open-world RPGs. CD Projekt Red reported a revenue of $2.04 billion in 2022.
 
=== Indie-game Developers ===
The rise of indie game development has added to the competitive landscape. Smaller studios and independent developers create unique and innovative games that can sometimes compete with AAA titles from major publishers. Ubisoft faces competition from indie games that cater to niche markets or provide fresh gaming experiences.


== Financials ==
== Financials ==


=== Stock Performance ===
=== Stock Performance ===
[[File:Ubisoft Stock Price.png|frame|none]]


Ubisoft's current share price is ~ €29 per share. Ubisoft has traded at a discount to peers over the past few years due to execution risk stemming from production delays, which constrains cash flows. While this is partly justified, it can be argued that the discount is oversized.
=== Historical Data ===
=== Valuation ===
 
{| class="wikitable"
=== Forecast ===
!''€ Million''
! colspan="9" |''Historical''
! colspan="5" |''Projected''
|-
!Income Statement
!2015
!2016
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!2023
!2024E
!2025E
!2026E
!2027E
!2028E
|-
|Revenue
|1,464
|1,394
|1,460
|1,732
|1,846
|1,595
|2,224
|2,125
|1,814
|2,143
|2,291
|2,433
|2,605
|2,770
|-
|% growth
|
|(4.77%)
|4.73%
|18.63%
|6.56%
|(13.59%)
|39.44%
|(4.43%)
|(14.63%)
|18.13%
|6.88%
|6.22%
|7.06%
|6.33%
|-
|EBIT
|92
|192
|262
|295
|83
|257
|351
|(164)
|(487)
|353
|417
|482
|557
|637
|-
|% revenue
|6.26%
|13.78%
|17.93%
|17.01%
|4.51%
|16.09%
|15.78%
|(7.70%)
|(26.86%)
|16.48%
|18.20%
|19.80%
|21.40%
|23.00%
|-
|Taxes
|53
|30
|51
|69
|48
|46
|133
|114
|(109)
|74
|88
|101
|117
|134
|-
|% of EBIT
|57.84%
|15.44%
|19.66%
|23.50%
|58.19%
|17.81%
|37.79%
|(69.46%)
|22.38%
|21.00%
|21.00%
|21.00%
|21.00%
|21.00%
|-
|EBIAT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|279
|329
|381
|440
|503
|-
!Cash Flow Items
!2015
!2016
!2017
!2018
!2019
!2020
!2021
!2022
!2023
!2024E
!2025E
!2026E
!2027E
!2028E
|-
|D&A
|511
|463
|475
|544
|584
|619
|659
|672
|1,287
|774
|838
|902
|978
|1,053
|-
|% revenue
|34.91%
|33.20%
|32.51%
|31.41%
|31.66%
|38.84%
|29.62%
|31.63%
|70.94%
|36.13%
|36.59%
|37.08%
|37.54%
|38.00%
|-
|CapEx
|(535)
|(541)
|(545)
|(610)
|(662)
|(756)
|(850)
|(946)
|(1070)
|(1000)
|(1051)
|(1079)
|(1125)
|(1163)
|-
|% revenue
|(36.55%)
|(38.77%)
|(37.33%)
|(35.22%)
|(35.87%)
|(47.40%)
|(38.22%)
|(44.51%)
|(58.98%)
|(46.66%)
|(45.88%)
|(44.34%)
|(43.17%)
|(42.00%)
|-
|Change  in NWC
|(39)
|241
|22
|17
|(352)
|(32)
|(50)
|154
|43
|(24)
|(26)
|(28)
|(29)
|(31)
|-
|% revenue
|(2.69%)
|17.26%
|1.50%
|0.96%
|(19.09%)
|(1.98%)
|(2.23%)
|7.24%
|2.36%
|(1.13%)
|(1.13%)
|(1.13%)
|(1.13%)
|(1.13%)
|-
!Free Cash Flow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!78
!142
!231
!323
!424
|-
!PV of Free Cash Flow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!71
!118
!174
!221
!263
|-
!Terminal  Value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!6,236
|-
!Present  Value of Terminal Value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!3,872
|-
!Enterprise  Value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!4,718
|-
!(-)  Net Debt
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!971
|-
!(-)  Minority Interest
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!4
|-
!Equity  Value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!3,743
|-
!#Shares
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!126
|-
!Share Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
!29.83
|}
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" rowspan="2" |Sensitivity Analysis
! colspan="7" |WACC
|-
!8.5%
!9.0%
!9.5%
!10.0%
!10.5%
!11.0%
!11.50%
|-
! rowspan="6" |Terminal growth rate
!2.0%
|€            34.56
|€          31.18
|€          28.26
|€          25.71
|€          23.46
|€          21.47
|€          19.70
|-
!2.5%
|€            37.68
|€          33.81
|€          30.50
|€          27.63
|€          25.13
|€          22.93
|€          20.97
|-
!3.0%
|€            41.37
|€          36.88
|€          33.08
!€          29.83
|€          27.02
|€          24.56
|€          22.40
|-
!3.5%
|€            45.80
|€          40.50
|€          36.09
|€          32.36
|€          29.17
|€          26.42
|€          24.01
|-
!4.0%
|€            51.22
|€          44.85
|€          39.65
|€          35.32
|€          31.66
|€          28.53
|€          25.83
|-
!4.5%
|€            57.99
|€          50.17
|€          43.92
|€          38.81
|€          34.57
|€          30.98
|€          27.91
|}
The above DCF outputs an implied share price of €29.93. A WACC of 10% and Terminal Growth Rate of 3% was used.


==== Investment Thesis ====
==== Investment Thesis ====
Recommend a Neutral rating for Ubisoft. Despite having a strong line-up for FY2024, which includes four AAA titles, there are challenges to consider, such as a difficult market with fierce competition from other developers and the possibility of delays in game releases. However, Ubisoft does possess robust development capabilities and a diverse portfolio of brands that could drive revenue growth and margin expansion in the long term if current issues are resolved.
many new AAA games (strong lineup 2024), potential start of new lucrative franchises / IPs, appointed new independent board members with large successful track records to strengthen their corporate governance, risks around execution, which may significantly dampen upside potential of new franchises, which has been seen with e.g., Redfall, which was released by Bethesda earlier this year.
 
The company's new strategy offers significant upside potential, which could be underappreciated by the market. Ubisoft trades at a 50% discount compared to its gaming peers, well below the 5-year average discount of 33%. This discount seems to be influenced by investors' perception of elevated execution risk at the company.<ref>Deutsche Bank. (2023) Deutsche Bank FY-23 Preview Closing chapter</ref>
 
While a certain discount is warranted due to Ubisoft's track record, it can be argued that the current discount is disproportionately large, especially considering the potential of its new strategy and the associated transmedia effect. Although the strategy may take time to materialize fully, it could lead to substantial benefits for Ubisoft in the future.
 
Furthermore, Barclays reports that the largest AAA games have recently outperformed while smaller AAAs have underperformed: "Our 7 interviewees noted that improvements to the stickiness of the major games and their ability to keep gamers within their ecosystem were a major competitive factor in the AAA market. They also felt it was becoming more difficult to deliver success in 1-5m unit AAA games. They pointed to the squeezed consumer as exacerbating rather than creating this trend." This new trend reinforces the fact that Ubisoft's new strategy to focus on their core franchises, most of which are considered 'Mega games', synergises with structural changes in the industry and is the right path of action.<ref>Barclays. (2023) Ubisoft, Embracer and CD Projekt: Mega games getting bigger?</ref>
 
However, consensus analyst reports don't seem to have the same opinion, and view the execution risk as significant. Furthermore, from gamer sentiment on the key franchise trailers, it can be seen that gamers are tired of recycled content. So, if Ubisoft focusing on their core franchises means recycling content, that could be met with significant negative reactions. Therefore, it may be prudent to sit and watch how Ubisoft develops over time.
 
==== Risks to Price Target ====
Risks include: 
 
• Better/worse than expected execution leading to a stronger/weaker release slate
 
• Better/worse reviews of large AAA games impacting sales
 
• Better/worse than expected macro and competitive environments in major markets
 
• Better/worse than expected sales from new sources of revenue including mobile & F2P


• FX changes
==== Risks ====


== References ==
== References ==
__INDEX__
__INDEX__
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