Editing Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc
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A significant turning point for Aston Martin came in 1947 when the company was acquired by industrialist David Brown. Under Brown's leadership, Aston Martin experienced a revitalization and began a new era of innovation and success. The DB series, starting with the iconic DB2, marked a new design direction and established Aston Martin as a premier luxury sports car manufacturer. | A significant turning point for Aston Martin came in 1947 when the company was acquired by industrialist David Brown. Under Brown's leadership, Aston Martin experienced a revitalization and began a new era of innovation and success. The DB series, starting with the iconic DB2, marked a new design direction and established Aston Martin as a premier luxury sports car manufacturer. | ||
Over the years, Aston Martin continued to evolve and expand its product | Over the years, Aston Martin continued to evolve and expand its product lineup, introducing notable models such as the DB4, DB5 (famously associated with James Bond), and later the DB9, Vantage, and Vanquish. The brand also ventured into motorsport, achieving notable successes in endurance racing, including multiple victories at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. | ||
Throughout its history, Aston Martin has faced challenges, changes in ownership, and fluctuations in the market. However, the brand has remained true to its founding principles of delivering exceptional performance, craftsmanship, and luxury. Today, Aston Martin continues to be a symbol of automotive excellence, renowned for its distinctive design, engineering prowess, and rich heritage. | Throughout its history, Aston Martin has faced challenges, changes in ownership, and fluctuations in the market. However, the brand has remained true to its founding principles of delivering exceptional performance, craftsmanship, and luxury. Today, Aston Martin continues to be a symbol of automotive excellence, renowned for its distinctive design, engineering prowess, and rich heritage. | ||
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Key elements of Aston Martin's mission include: | Key elements of Aston Martin's mission include: | ||
# | # Exquisite Design and Craftsmanship: Aston Martin is committed to creating vehicles that showcase meticulous design, exquisite craftsmanship, and attention to detail. By blending traditional handcrafting techniques with advanced technology, Aston Martin aims to deliver cars that are not only visually stunning but also built to the highest standards of quality. | ||
# | # Unparalleled Performance: Aston Martin vehicles are renowned for their exceptional performance, offering exhilarating driving experiences. Whether on the racetrack or the open road, Aston Martin strives to engineer cars that deliver outstanding power, agility, and handling, reflecting its rich motorsport heritage and relentless pursuit of automotive excellence. | ||
# | # Timeless Elegance: Aston Martin vehicles exude timeless elegance, combining classic design cues with modern aesthetics. The brand aims to create cars that transcend trends and stand the test of time, appealing to individuals who appreciate understated luxury and sophistication. | ||
# | # Personalization and Exclusivity: Aston Martin recognizes the importance of personalization and exclusivity, offering customers the ability to tailor their vehicles to their unique preferences. By providing bespoke options and limited production models, Aston Martin seeks to create a sense of exclusivity and individuality for its discerning clientele. | ||
# | # Commitment to Innovation: Aston Martin is dedicated to pushing the boundaries of automotive technology and innovation. The brand continually invests in research and development to incorporate cutting-edge advancements, including electrification and sustainable solutions, while staying true to its core values of performance and luxury. | ||
# | # Engaging the Aston Martin Community: Aston Martin aims to foster a strong and engaged community of enthusiasts, owners, and fans worldwide. The brand actively cultivates relationships with its customers, organizing exclusive events, driving experiences, and providing exceptional customer service to create a sense of belonging and strengthen the Aston Martin community. | ||
Through its mission, Aston Martin aspires to be a globally recognized symbol of automotive excellence, embodying the passion, heritage, and craftsmanship that have defined the brand for over a century. | Through its mission, Aston Martin aspires to be a globally recognized symbol of automotive excellence, embodying the passion, heritage, and craftsmanship that have defined the brand for over a century. | ||
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Aston Martin offers a range of high-performance luxury sports cars and grand tourers that combine stunning design, exceptional performance, and refined craftsmanship. The main offerings of the company include: | Aston Martin offers a range of high-performance luxury sports cars and grand tourers that combine stunning design, exceptional performance, and refined craftsmanship. The main offerings of the company include: | ||
1. Sports Cars: | |||
[[File:Aston Martin Sports Car.png|thumb|292x292px|Aston Martin Sports Car]] | [[File:Aston Martin Sports Car.png|thumb|292x292px|Aston Martin Sports Car]] | ||
Aston Martin's sports cars embody the brand's racing heritage and commitment to exhilarating performance. These models are designed for pure driving pleasure, offering precise handling, powerful engines, and dynamic capabilities. Examples of Aston Martin sports cars include the Vantage, DB11, and DBS Superleggera. | Aston Martin's sports cars embody the brand's racing heritage and commitment to exhilarating performance. These models are designed for pure driving pleasure, offering precise handling, powerful engines, and dynamic capabilities. Examples of Aston Martin sports cars include the Vantage, DB11, and DBS Superleggera. | ||
2. Grand Tourers: | |||
[[File:Aston Martin Grand Tourer.png|thumb|Aston Martin Grand Tourer]] | [[File:Aston Martin Grand Tourer.png|thumb|Aston Martin Grand Tourer]] | ||
Aston Martin's grand tourers are designed for long-distance journeys in utmost comfort and style. These models prioritize luxurious interiors, advanced technologies, and high levels of refinement. Grand tourers from Aston Martin include the DB11 and DBS Superleggera Volante, offering open-top driving experiences. | Aston Martin's grand tourers are designed for long-distance journeys in utmost comfort and style. These models prioritize luxurious interiors, advanced technologies, and high levels of refinement. Grand tourers from Aston Martin include the DB11 and DBS Superleggera Volante, offering open-top driving experiences. | ||
3. Limited Edition and Special Edition Models: | |||
[[File:Aston Martin Valkyrie.png|thumb|Aston Martin Valkyrie]] | [[File:Aston Martin Valkyrie.png|thumb|Aston Martin Valkyrie]] | ||
Aston Martin frequently introduces limited edition and special edition models to create exclusivity and cater to collectors and enthusiasts. These unique offerings often feature bespoke design elements, enhanced performance, and limited production numbers. Examples include special editions like the DBS GT Zagato and limited-production models like the Valkyrie hypercar. | Aston Martin frequently introduces limited edition and special edition models to create exclusivity and cater to collectors and enthusiasts. These unique offerings often feature bespoke design elements, enhanced performance, and limited production numbers. Examples include special editions like the DBS GT Zagato and limited-production models like the Valkyrie hypercar. | ||
4. Luxury SUV: | |||
[[File:Aston Martin DBX.png|thumb|Aston Martin DBX]] | [[File:Aston Martin DBX.png|thumb|Aston Martin DBX]] | ||
Aston Martin has expanded its portfolio to include a luxury SUV called the DBX. The DBX represents Aston Martin's entry into the SUV segment, combining performance, versatility, and luxury. It offers ample space, advanced technologies, and off-road capabilities while maintaining the brand's signature design and driving experience. | Aston Martin has expanded its portfolio to include a luxury SUV called the DBX. The DBX represents Aston Martin's entry into the SUV segment, combining performance, versatility, and luxury. It offers ample space, advanced technologies, and off-road capabilities while maintaining the brand's signature design and driving experience. | ||
5. Electrification: | |||
As part of Aston Martin's commitment to sustainability and the future of automotive technology, the company has begun incorporating electrification into its offerings. The Aston Martin Rapide E, an all-electric vehicle, represents the brand's foray into electric powertrains. Aston Martin plans to introduce more electric and hybrid models in the future. | As part of Aston Martin's commitment to sustainability and the future of automotive technology, the company has begun incorporating electrification into its offerings. The Aston Martin Rapide E, an all-electric vehicle, represents the brand's foray into electric powertrains. Aston Martin plans to introduce more electric and hybrid models in the future. | ||
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"Other" refers to prior generation models | "Other" refers to prior generation models | ||
== Market == | == Market == | ||
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'''Serviceable Available Market''' | '''Serviceable Available Market''' | ||
Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global luxury sports car market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of 2023, in terms of revenue, is $655 billion. <ref>[https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/luxury-car-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20luxury%20car%20market%20size%20was%20estimated%20at%20USD,USD%201%2C046.87%20billion%20by%202030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/luxury-car-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20luxury%20car%20market%20size%20was%20estimated%20at%20USD,USD%201%2C046.87%20billion%20by%202030.]</ref>[[File:Pie chart .png|thumb|Percentage of revenue from different countries]]Aston Martin, a renowned luxury car manufacturer, can take advantage of emerging markets in less developed countries in several ways. First, these markets typically have a burgeoning middle class with increasing disposable income, which could potentially afford and are attracted to luxury items such as Aston Martin cars. Additionally, increasing urbanization often leads to a higher demand for automobiles as infrastructures and road systems improve in these countries. Aston Martin can leverage its strong brand image and reputation for quality to draw in these new potential customers. By entering these markets early, they can also establish a strong presence and consumer loyalty before other luxury car manufacturers, giving them a competitive advantage. Furthermore, | Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global luxury sports car market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of 2023, in terms of revenue, is $655 billion. <ref>[https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/luxury-car-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20luxury%20car%20market%20size%20was%20estimated%20at%20USD,USD%201%2C046.87%20billion%20by%202030. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/luxury-car-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20luxury%20car%20market%20size%20was%20estimated%20at%20USD,USD%201%2C046.87%20billion%20by%202030.]</ref>[[File:Pie chart .png|thumb|Percentage of revenue from different countries]]Aston Martin, a renowned luxury car manufacturer, can take advantage of emerging markets in less developed countries in several ways. First, these markets typically have a burgeoning middle class with increasing disposable income, which could potentially afford and are attracted to luxury items such as Aston Martin cars. Additionally, increasing urbanization often leads to a higher demand for automobiles as infrastructures and road systems improve in these countries. Aston Martin can leverage its strong brand image and reputation for quality to draw in these new potential customers. By entering these markets early, they can also establish a strong presence and consumer loyalty before other luxury car manufacturers, giving them a competitive advantage. Furthermore, labor and production costs may be lower in these countries, enabling the company to potentially reduce costs and increase profits. Lastly, diverse markets provide opportunities for Aston Martin to learn and innovate, considering differing customer needs and preferences, and thereby enhancing their product portfolio and adaptability. | ||
== Competition == | == Competition == | ||
[[File:Number of cars sold.png|thumb|Comparison of the market share of a few luxury sports car companies]] | [[File:Number of cars sold.png|thumb|Comparison of the market share of a few luxury sports car companies]] | ||
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Having established best in class purchasing and supplier development functions in the high-performance automotive sector and other industries, Lasagni’s career includes roles as Purchasing and Supplier Development Director at Ferrari and Engine Manufacturing Director for Ferrari and Maserati. | Having established best in class purchasing and supplier development functions in the high-performance automotive sector and other industries, Lasagni’s career includes roles as Purchasing and Supplier Development Director at Ferrari and Engine Manufacturing Director for Ferrari and Maserati. | ||
=== Majority Stakeholders in Aston Martin | === Majority Stakeholders in Aston Martin === | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
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|308 | |308 | ||
|} | |} | ||
== Financials == | == Financials == | ||
'''Most recent quarter''' | '''Most recent quarter''' | ||
First quarter results for the three months to 31 March 2023: | |||
* Revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to £296m primarily driven by | |||
** favourable mix dynamics from the DBX707 and V12 Vantage, higher volumes and strong pricing dynamics in the core portfolio | |||
** higher year-on-year Aston Martin Valkyrie programme deliveries (18 vehicles compared to 14 in Q1 2022) | |||
The | * Gross profit increased by 21% year-on-year to £102m (Q1 2022: £84m), with gross margin of 34% (Q1 2022: 36%). The increase in gross profit was primarily driven by favourable mix and higher volumes of core models, partially offset by higher manufacturing, logistics and other costs. | ||
* Operating loss of £51m included a £19m year-on-year increase in depreciation and amortisation, driven by higher Aston Martin Valkyrie programme deliveries and the continuing accelerated amortisation of capitalised development costs ahead of next generation of sports cars starting in 2023 | |||
* Loss before tax of £74m (Q1 2022: loss of £112m) included lower year-on-year net financing charges due to a positive non-cash FX revaluation impact | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
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!% change | !% change | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Revenue (£m) | |||
|295.9 | |295.9 | ||
|232.7 | |232.7 | ||
|27.2 | |27.2 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Profit (£m) | |||
|101.9 | |101.9 | ||
|84 | |84 | ||
|21.3 | |21.3 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Margin (%) | |||
|34.4 | |34.4 | ||
|36.1 | |36.1 | ||
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| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Operating Profit (£m) | |||
| -50.9 | | -50.9 | ||
| -47.7 | | -47.7 | ||
| -6.7 | | -6.7 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Net Profit before tax (£m) | |||
| -74.2 | | -74.2 | ||
| -111.6 | | -111.6 | ||
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!FY-18 | !FY-18 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Revenue (£m) | |||
|1381.5 | |1381.5 | ||
|1095.3 | |1095.3 | ||
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|1096.5 | |1096.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Profit (£m) | |||
|450.7 | |450.7 | ||
|343.7 | |343.7 | ||
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|435.8 | |435.8 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Margin (%) | |||
|32.6 | |32.6 | ||
|31.4 | |31.4 | ||
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| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Operating Profit (£m) | |||
| -141.8 | | -141.8 | ||
| -76.5 | | -76.5 | ||
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|72.8 | |72.8 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Net Profit (£m) | |||
| -527.7 | | -527.7 | ||
| -189.3 | | -189.3 | ||
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!FY-18 | !FY-18 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Total Assets (£m) | |||
|3,104.3 | |3,104.3 | ||
|2,842.5 | |2,842.5 | ||
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|1,970.2 | |1,970.2 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Total Liabilities (£m) | |||
|2,331.8 | |2,331.8 | ||
|2,182.1 | |2,182.1 | ||
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|1,520.8 | |1,520.8 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Net Assets (£m) | |||
|772.5 | |772.5 | ||
|660.4 | |660.4 | ||
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|449.4 | |449.4 | ||
|} | |} | ||
FY-22 Highlights | |||
* Revenue increased by 26% year-on-year to £1.4bn and Q4 revenue increased by 46% year-on-year to £524m driven by: | |||
** Strong pricing dynamics and favourable mix in the core portfolio: | |||
*** FY-22 core Average Selling Price (ASP) of £177k, up 18% from £150k in FY-22 | |||
*** Q4 2022 core ASP of £184k, up 21% from £152k in Q4 2021 | |||
** 80 Aston Martin Valkyrie programme deliveries during 2022, including 36 in Q4 | |||
** Foreign exchange tailwinds for ASPs due to GBP weakness versus major currencies | |||
* Gross profit increased by 31% year-on-year to £451m (2021: £344m) and gross margin increased to 33% (2021: 31%), reflecting improved pricing and gross margin for core models, partially offset by the impact of lower year-on-year gross margin within Specials | |||
* Operating loss of £142m included a £96m year-on-year increase in depreciation and amortisation, primarily driven by higher year-on- year Aston Martin Valkyrie programme deliveries and, to a lesser extent, by accelerated amortisation of capitalised development costs ahead of the next generation of sports car launches | |||
* Net loss of £528m was materially impacted by a £156m negative non-cash FX revaluation of US dollar-denominated debt as the GBP weakened significantly against the US dollar during the year | |||
'''Financial Forecasts''' | '''Financial Forecasts''' | ||
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!FY-24 | !FY-24 | ||
!FY-25 | !FY-25 | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Revenue (£m) | |||
| | |1621.3 | ||
|1819.5 | |||
|2063.8 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Profit (£m) | |||
| | |599.9 | ||
|709.6 | |||
|825.5 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
!Gross Margin (%) | |||
| | |37 | ||
|39 | |||
|40 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
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| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Net Profit (£m) | |||
| - | | -195.4 | ||
| | | -82.7 | ||
|71.6 | |||
| | |||
|} | |} | ||
Forecast highlights: | Forecast highlights: | ||
* Revenue Growth: Revenue is expected to show consistent growth over the three fiscal years, increasing from £1,621.3 million in FY-23 to £2,063.8 million in FY-25, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4%. | |||
* Improving Gross Profit: Gross profit is expected to demonstrated a positive trend, rising from £599.9 million in FY-23 to £825.5 million in FY-25. | |||
* Rising Gross Margin: Gross margin is forecast to reach its company target of 40% in FY-25, showing consistent year on year growth as the company increases its Average Selling Price to reflect the transition to the Ultra-Luxury segment of the market. | |||
* Net Profit Turnaround: Return to profitability estimated in 2025, with a net profit of £71.6m. | |||
== Risks == | == Risks == | ||
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* If Aston Martin is not able to maintain a unique identity with its products, it will find it a lot more difficult to differentiate itself from its competitors, and the demand base could deteriorate. C2 | * If Aston Martin is not able to maintain a unique identity with its products, it will find it a lot more difficult to differentiate itself from its competitors, and the demand base could deteriorate. C2 | ||
* Aston Martin may face increased costs due to supply chain issues or adverse macroeconomic conditions. Hiked interest rates to combat inflation result in increased debt. C3 | * Aston Martin may face increased costs due to supply chain issues or adverse macroeconomic conditions. Hiked interest rates to combat inflation result in increased debt. C3 | ||
* An inability to shift a sufficient share of its sales to electric vehicles by 2035 would mean that maintaining the sales volume in the EU will no longer be possible, under the EU's 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicle sales | * An inability to shift a sufficient share of its sales to electric vehicles by 2035 would mean that maintaining the sales volume in the EU will no longer be possible, under the EU's 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicle sales. C2 | ||
=== Risks related to the company's operations === | === Risks related to the company's operations === | ||
* Aston Martin is supplied powertrains and electric/electronics architecture, for some of its products, by Mercedes-Benz AMG. Any disruption to Mercedes' production could pose a limiting-factor risk to AML's production efficiency strategy. | * Aston Martin is supplied powertrains and electric/electronics architecture, for some of its products, by Mercedes-Benz AMG. Any disruption to Mercedes' production could pose a limiting-factor risk to AML's production efficiency strategy. C1 | ||
* Aston Martin faces risks associated with maintaining and expanding its international operations, including unfavourable and uncertain regulatory, political, economic, tax and labour conditions. B1 | * Aston Martin faces risks associated with maintaining and expanding its international operations, including unfavourable and uncertain regulatory, political, economic, tax and labour conditions. B1 | ||
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=== What's the expected return of an investment in the company? === | === What's the expected return of an investment in the company? === | ||
The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc over the next five years is '''negative | The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc over the next five years is '''negative 25%'''. This value was arrived at through the use an intrinsic valuation in the form of a discounted cash flow model and a relative valuation by conducting comparable company analysis. | ||
Assuming that a suitable return level of five years is 10% per year (based of the S&P 500 returns) and Aston Martin Lagonda achieves its return level of negative | Assuming that a suitable return level of five years is 10% per year (based of the S&P 500 returns) and Aston Martin Lagonda achieves its return level of negative 25%, then the company can be considered 'overvalued'. | ||
=== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? === | === What are the assumptions used to estimate the return? === | ||
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|Valuation Model | |Valuation Model | ||
|Discounted Cash Flow and Comparable Company Analysis | |Discounted Cash Flow and Comparable Company Analysis | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
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|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
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|} | |} | ||
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{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|+ | |+ | ||
!Current Share Price | |||
!3.21 | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
! | |||
|- | |- | ||
|''£ million'' | |||
| colspan="5" |''Historical'' | |||
| colspan="5" |''Projected'' | |||
|- | |- | ||
! | !Income Statement | ||
!2018 | !2018 | ||
!2019 | !2019 | ||
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!2026 | !2026 | ||
!2027 | !2027 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Revenue | |Revenue | ||
Line 794: | Line 766: | ||
|2289.5 | |2289.5 | ||
|2404.0 | |2404.0 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|''% growth'' | |''% growth'' | ||
|25% | |''25%'' | ||
| -9% | |''-9%'' | ||
| -39% | |''-39%'' | ||
|79% | |''79%'' | ||
|26% | |''26%'' | ||
|18% | |''18%'' | ||
|14% | |''14%'' | ||
|12% | |''12%'' | ||
|10% | |''10%'' | ||
|5% | |''5%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
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|930.8 | |930.8 | ||
|1075.9 | |1075.9 | ||
| | |1208.0 | ||
|1332.1 | |1332.1 | ||
|1373.7 | |||
|1442.4 | |1442.4 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
|60% | |''60%'' | ||
|64% | |''64%'' | ||
|82% | |''82%'' | ||
|69% | |''69%'' | ||
|67% | |''67%'' | ||
|66% | |''66%'' | ||
|65% | |''65%'' | ||
|64% | |''64%'' | ||
| | |''60%'' | ||
| | |''60%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 868: | Line 834: | ||
|450.7 | |450.7 | ||
|554.3 | |554.3 | ||
| | |650.4 | ||
|749.3 | |749.3 | ||
| | |915.8 | ||
| | |961.6 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
|40% | |''40%'' | ||
|36% | |''36%'' | ||
|18% | |''18%'' | ||
|31% | |''31%'' | ||
|33% | |''33%'' | ||
|34% | |''34%'' | ||
| | |''35%'' | ||
|36% | |''36%'' | ||
| | |''40%'' | ||
| | |''40%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 904: | Line 867: | ||
| 331.3 | | 331.3 | ||
| 336.7 | | 336.7 | ||
| | | 419.3 | ||
| | | 570.0 | ||
|668.4 | |668.4 | ||
|594.7 | |594.7 | ||
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|618.2 | |618.2 | ||
|649.1 | |649.1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
|28% | |''28%'' | ||
|33% | |''33%'' | ||
|55% | |''55%'' | ||
|38% | |''38%'' | ||
|41% | |''41%'' | ||
|41% | |''41%'' | ||
|32% | |''32%'' | ||
|27% | |''27%'' | ||
|27% | |''27%'' | ||
|27% | |''27%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 950: | Line 910: | ||
|618.2 | |618.2 | ||
|649.1 | |649.1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
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|''27%'' | |''27%'' | ||
|''27%'' | |''27%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 985: | Line 942: | ||
| -119.3 | | -119.3 | ||
| -114.1 | | -114.1 | ||
| | |55.8 | ||
|187.3 | |187.3 | ||
| | |297.6 | ||
| | |312.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,011: | Line 966: | ||
|188.8 | |188.8 | ||
|239.9 | |239.9 | ||
| | |384.8 | ||
|480.3 | |480.3 | ||
| | |618.2 | ||
| | |649.1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,031: | Line 984: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Tax Expense | |Tax Expense | ||
|(11.10) | | (11.10) | ||
|0.10 | | 0.10 | ||
|(55.50) | | (55.50) | ||
|(24.50) | | (24.50) | ||
|32.70 | | 32.70 | ||
|8.0 | |8.0 | ||
| | |3.9 | ||
|35.6 | |35.6 | ||
| | |56.6 | ||
| | |59.4 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''Effective tax rate'' | | ''Effective tax rate'' | ||
Line 1,054: | Line 1,006: | ||
|''19%'' | |''19%'' | ||
|''19%'' | |''19%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,076: | Line 1,026: | ||
| | | | ||
| - 122.1 | | - 122.1 | ||
| | | 51.8 | ||
| 151.7 | | 151.7 | ||
| | | 241.1 | ||
| | | 253.1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|''£ million'' | |||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,095: | Line 1,055: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
! | !Cashflow | ||
!2018 | |||
!2019 | |||
!2020 | |||
!2021 | |||
!2022 | |||
!2023 | |||
!2024 | |||
!2025 | |||
!2026 | |||
!2027 | |||
|- | |- | ||
|D&A | |D&A | ||
Line 1,108: | Line 1,078: | ||
|320.5 | |320.5 | ||
|336.6 | |336.6 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
Line 1,121: | Line 1,090: | ||
|''14%'' | |''14%'' | ||
|''14%'' | |''14%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,147: | Line 1,114: | ||
| -229.0 | | -229.0 | ||
| -192.3 | | -192.3 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| ''% of revenue'' | | ''% of revenue'' | ||
Line 1,160: | Line 1,126: | ||
|''10%'' | |''10%'' | ||
|''8%'' | |''8%'' | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,186: | Line 1,150: | ||
|68.7 | |68.7 | ||
|72.1 | |72.1 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|% of revenue | |% of revenue | ||
| | | -4% | ||
| | |1% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | | -4% | ||
| | | -3% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | |3% | ||
| | |3% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,220: | Line 1,181: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|'''<u>-61.53</u>''' | |'''<u>- 61.53</u>''' | ||
| | | '''<u> 46.34</u>''' | ||
| | | '''<u> 174.15</u>''' | ||
| | | '''<u> 263.98</u>''' | ||
| | | '''<u> 325.26</u>''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
Line 1,231: | Line 1,191: | ||
!WACC | !WACC | ||
! | ! | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Weights''' | |'''<u>Weights</u>''' | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Total Debt | |Total Debt | ||
|1200.5 | |1200.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Market Cap | |Market Cap | ||
|2430 | |2430 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Total | |Total | ||
|3630.5 | |3630.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Wd | |Wd | ||
|0.33 | |0.33 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|We | |We | ||
|0.67 | |0.67 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Debt''' | |'''<u>Debt</u>''' | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Total Debt | |Total Debt | ||
|1200.5 | |1200.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Interest Expense | |Interest Expense | ||
| - | | -175.5 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Rate | |Rate | ||
| | |12% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Effective Tax Rate | |Effective Tax Rate | ||
| | |19% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Rd(1-t) | |Rd(1-t) | ||
| | |9.7% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Equity''' | |'''<u>Equity</u>''' | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Risk Free Rate | |Risk Free Rate | ||
|4.5% | |4.5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Beta | |Beta | ||
|2 | |2 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Market Rate | |Market Rate | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Re | |Re | ||
| | |14.9% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''<u>Discount Rate</u>''' | |'''<u>Discount Rate</u>''' | ||
|'''<u> | |'''<u>13.19%</u>''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''<u>Perpetuity Growth Rate</u>''' | |'''<u>Perpetuity Growth Rate</u>''' | ||
|'''<u>2. | |'''<u>2.5%</u>''' | ||
|} | |} | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
Line 1,330: | Line 1,267: | ||
!2027 | !2027 | ||
!Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth) | !Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth) | ||
|- | |- | ||
|''£ million'' | |''£ million'' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,345: | Line 1,280: | ||
| | | | ||
| - 61.5 | | - 61.5 | ||
| | | 46.3 | ||
| 174.2 | | 174.2 | ||
| | | 264.0 | ||
| | | 325.3 | ||
| | | 3,119.6 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Present Value of FCF | ||
| | |437.83 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,363: | Line 1,296: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Terminal Value | |Terminal Value | ||
| | | 3,119.60 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,372: | Line 1,304: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |Present Value of Terminal Value | ||
| | |1679.24 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,383: | Line 1,314: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Enterprise Value | |Enterprise Value | ||
| | |2117.07 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,393: | Line 1,323: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Net Debt | |Net Debt | ||
| 520.4 | | -520.4 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,403: | Line 1,332: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Equity Value | |Equity Value | ||
| | |1596.7 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,414: | Line 1,342: | ||
|Shares Out | |Shares Out | ||
|698 | |698 | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,422: | Line 1,349: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|''' | |'''Equity Value per Share''' | ||
|''' | |'''2.29''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,432: | Line 1,358: | ||
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |'''Current share price''' | ||
| | |'''3.21''' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,443: | Line 1,368: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|''Difference'' | |''Difference'' | ||
| ''- | |''-29%'' | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
Line 1,450: | Line 1,375: | ||
| | | | ||
| | | | ||
|} | |} | ||
== References | == References == | ||
__INDEX__ | __INDEX__ |