Editing Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc

Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.

The edit can be undone. Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then publish the changes below to finish undoing the edit.

Latest revision Your text
Line 779: Line 779:
!2026
!2026
!2027
!2027
!Notes
!
|-
|-
! colspan="12" |Income Statement
! colspan="12" |Income Statement
Line 794: Line 794:
|2289.5
|2289.5
|2404.0
|2404.0
|Projections based of Stockhub user's opinion as well as analyst projections from CapitalIQ and Yahoo Finance
|
|-
|-
|''% growth''
|''% growth''
Line 807: Line 807:
|10%
|10%
|5%
|5%
|High investment from previous years into a new factory and electric vehicles likely to cause significant increases in revenue during the first few years before subsiding.
|
|-
|-
|
|
Line 846: Line 846:
|63%
|63%
|62%
|62%
|Used previous years as a starting point however a key goal for new chairmen Lawrence Stroll is to reduce costs and increase overall profitability which is demonstrated by the decreasing cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue.
|
|-
|-
|
|
Line 911: Line 911:
|618.2
|618.2
|649.1
|649.1
|Aston Martin reports D&A within this expense band. High D&A linked to the Valkyrie R&D is highly prevalent in the first yeasrs of projection but these costs are likely to reduce in the future alongside cost cutting measures.
|
|-
|-
| ''% of revenue''  
| ''% of revenue''  
Line 1,041: Line 1,041:
|43.5
|43.5
|50.2
|50.2
|Over the past years Aston Martin has not generated positive earnigns and hence have not paid Tax. The effective tax rate at 7.3% differs from the 19% standard UK tax rate mainly due to movement in unprovided deferred tax and derecognition of deferred tax related to losses, accelerated capital allowances and a restriction on the amount of interest that can be deducted for tax purposes. Hence for the final years of projection when the company becomes profitable, the tax rate is raised to 19%.
|
|-
|-
| ''Effective tax rate''  
| ''Effective tax rate''  
Line 1,080: Line 1,080:
|         185.5
|         185.5
|          214.2  
|          214.2  
|Earnings before interest and after tax
|
|-
|-
|
|
Line 1,108: Line 1,108:
|320.5
|320.5
|336.6
|336.6
|D&A costs are high, primarily driven by higher year-onyear Aston Martin Valkyrie programme deliveries and, to a lesser extent, by accelerated amortisation of capitalised development costs ahead of the next generation of sports car launches. However this has again been projected to decrease in later years due to effects from the Valkyrie programme becoming negligable.
|
|-
|-
| ''% of revenue''  
| ''% of revenue''  
Line 1,147: Line 1,147:
| -229.0
| -229.0
| -192.3
| -192.3
|Significant increase in capital expenditure has been experienced in past 3 years related to future product launches, as well as adverse movements in working capital, which were impacted by supply chain and logistics disruptions. This expenditure is likely to remain high from future electric car launches however forcasted to decreases to pre-pandemic levels.<ref>https://www.astonmartin.com/-/media/corporate/documents/annual-reports/aston_martin_annual_report_2022.pdf?rev=6a462584d1c54890a85a324a2663c3d7&hash=9A3C425CE6101D99D4249E882AA19A4F</ref>
|
|-
|-
| ''% of revenue''  
| ''% of revenue''  
Line 1,186: Line 1,186:
|68.7
|68.7
|72.1
|72.1
|Simple average was taken spanning 8 years into the past.
|
|-
|-
|% of revenue  
|% of revenue  
Line 1,231: Line 1,231:
!WACC
!WACC
!
!
!Notes
|-
|-
|'''Weights'''
|'''Weights'''
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Total Debt
|Total Debt
|1200.5
|1200.5
|
|-
|-
|Market Cap  
|Market Cap  
|2430
|2430
|
|-
|-
|Total
|Total
|3630.5
|3630.5
|
|-
|-
|Wd
|Wd
|0.33
|0.33
|Weight of debt calculated as the total debt as a proportion of total capital.
|-
|-
|We
|We
|0.67
|0.67
|Weight of equity calculated as the market cap as a proportion of total capital
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Debt'''  
|'''Debt'''  
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Total Debt  
|Total Debt  
|1200.5
|1200.5
|Cost of debt was calculated by taking interest expenses from the income statement and dividing this by the total debt making note of the fact that debt is a tax deductable item.
|-
|-
|Interest Expense
|Interest Expense
| -201.9
| -201.9
|
|-
|-
|Rate
|Rate
|17%
|17%
|
|-
|-
|Effective Tax Rate
|Effective Tax Rate
|7%
|7%
|
|-
|-
|Rd(1-t)
|Rd(1-t)
|15.6%
|15.6%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|'''Equity'''  
|'''Equity'''  
|
|
|
|-
|-
|Risk Free Rate
|Risk Free Rate
|4.5%
|4.5%
|Capital asset pricing model was used to calculate the cost of equity. Risk free rate of the UK Gilt Yield was used.
|-
|-
|Beta
|Beta
|2.05
|2.05
|Beta for the stock was found from Yahoo Finance<ref>https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/</ref>
|-
|-
|Market Rate
|Market Rate
|10%
|10%
|Current market rate was calculated as the average returns of teh S&P 500 over the past 50 years.
|-
|-
|Re
|Re
|15.8%
|15.8%
|
|-
|-
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,315: Line 1,294:
|'''<u>Discount Rate</u>'''
|'''<u>Discount Rate</u>'''
|'''<u>15.73%</u>'''
|'''<u>15.73%</u>'''
|
|-
|-
|'''<u>Perpetuity Growth Rate</u>'''
|'''<u>Perpetuity Growth Rate</u>'''
|'''<u>2.0%</u>'''
|'''<u>2.0%</u>'''
|A perpetuity growth rate of 2% was used as this is sufficiently low to ensure that the company is not projected to increase in size far faster than the global economy in the very long term.
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
Line 1,330: Line 1,307:
!2027
!2027
!Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth)
!Terminal Value (Perpetuity Growth)
!Notes
|-
|-
|''£ million''
|''£ million''
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,350: Line 1,325:
|          286.3
|          286.3
|              2,127.0
|              2,127.0
|The terminal value of the company was calculated using the Gordon Growth Model<ref>https://einvestingforbeginners.com/terminal-value-gordon-growth-model-daah/</ref>.
|-
|-
|PV of FCF
|PV of FCF
|354.29
|354.29
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,364: Line 1,337:
|Terminal Value
|Terminal Value
|                     2,126.96
|                     2,126.96
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,374: Line 1,346:
|NPV of TV
|NPV of TV
|1024.52
|1024.52
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,384: Line 1,355:
|Enterprise Value
|Enterprise Value
|1378.81
|1378.81
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,394: Line 1,364:
|Net Debt
|Net Debt
| 520.4
| 520.4
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,404: Line 1,373:
|Equity Value
|Equity Value
|1899.2
|1899.2
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,414: Line 1,382:
|Shares Out
|Shares Out
|698
|698
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,424: Line 1,391:
|'''<u>Equity Value per Share</u>'''
|'''<u>Equity Value per Share</u>'''
|'''<u>2.72</u>'''
|'''<u>2.72</u>'''
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,434: Line 1,400:
|<u>Current share price</u>
|<u>Current share price</u>
|<u>3.21</u>
|<u>3.21</u>
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,444: Line 1,409:
|''Difference''
|''Difference''
| ''-15%''
| ''-15%''
|
|
|
|
|
Line 1,491: Line 1,455:
|£2.61
|£2.61
|£2.67
|£2.67
|'''£2.73'''
|£2.73
|£2.79
|£2.79
|£2.86
|£2.86
Please note that all contributions to Stockhub may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see Stockhub:Copyrights for details). Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel Editing help (opens in new window)