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BP p.l.c.
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== '''<u>Financials</u>''' == === Historical Financials === The table below shows revenue, EBIT and other financials for the previous 5 years. Revenue has shown an overall decline over the previous five years. The steep decline in 2020 was due to the global coronavirus pandemic. The jump in earnings from 2020 to 2021 and 2022 is due to the global volatility in oil prices as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. NCWC is non-cash working capital, and is calculated to be used in the DCF valuation below. {| class="wikitable" |+Historical Financials<ref name=":2">bp annual report 2022 - https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bp-annual-report-and-form-20f-2022.pdf</ref> | '''Units ($m)''' |'''2018''' |'''2019''' |'''2020''' |'''2021''' |'''2022''' |- | '''Total Revenue''' | 298,756.00 | 278,397.00 | 105,944.00 | 157,739.00 | 241,392.00 |- | '''Purchases''' | 229,878.00 | 209,672.00 | 57,682.00 | 92,923.00 | 141,043.00 |- | '''P&M Expenses''' | 23,005.00 | 21,815.00 | 22,494.00 | 25,843.00 | 28,610.00 |- | '''D&A Expenses''' | 12,179.00 | 11,057.00 | 10,397.00 | 11,931.00 | 13,449.00 |- | '''EBIT''' | ''' 18,237.00''' | ''' 18,073.00''' | ''' 482.00''' | ''' 12,237.00''' | ''' 43,972.00''' |- | '''Depreciation''' | 15,457.00 | 17,780.00 | 14,889.00 | 14,805.00 | 14,318.00 |- | '''CapEx''' | - 16,707.00 | - 15,418.00 | - 12,306.00 | - 10,887.00 | - 12,069.00 |- | '''Current Assets''' | 71,310.00 | 82,059.00 | 72,982.00 | 92,590.00 | 107,688.00 |- | '''Cash''' | 21,340.00 | 20,965.00 | 29,527.00 | 26,221.00 | 23,907.00 |- | '''Current Liabilities''' | 68,237.00 | 73,595.00 | 59,799.00 | 80,287.00 | 99,018.00 |- |'''NCWC''' | - 18,267.00 | - 12,501.00 | - 16,344.00 | - 13,918.00 | - 15,237.00 |- | '''NCWC (inc/dec)''' |\ | - 5,766.00 | 3,843.00 | - 2,426.00 | 1,319.00 |} Notes - P&M = Production and Manufacturing, D&A = Distribution and Administration. [[File:Historical Revenue bp.png|center|thumb|735x735px]] === Revenue by Segment<ref name=":2" /> === The following table shows revenue by each respective segment, units are $ millions. {| class="wikitable" |+Revenue |'''Segment''' |'''2022''' |'''2021''' |'''2020''' |- |'''Oil''' |33,193 |24,519 |17,234 |- |'''Gas and low carbon''' |56,255 |30,840 |16,275 |} Oil revenue has increased at an average of 38.8% over the previous 3 years, whereas gas and low carbon revenue has increased at a much greater rate of 86% over the last three years. === Forecasts === The following table shows how the financials have been forecast for a period of 10 years. {| class="wikitable" | '''Units ($m)''' |'''2023''' |'''2024''' |'''2025''' |'''2026''' |'''2027''' |'''2028''' |'''2029''' |'''2030''' |'''2031''' |'''2032''' |- | '''Total Revenue''' |331,884.34 |319,540.81 |307,093.20 |294,550.32 |281,919.91 |269,208.77 |256,422.93 |243,567.76 |230,648.06 |217,668.16 |- | '''Purchases''' |215,089.73 |207,090.06 |199,022.93 |190,894.06 |182,708.46 |174,470.55 |166,184.22 |157,852.96 |149,479.88 |141,067.78 |- | '''P&M Expenses''' |43,147.39 |41,542.64 |39,924.36 |38,293.69 |36,651.65 |34,999.11 |33,336.85 |31,665.59 |29,985.93 |28,298.45 |- | '''D&A Expenses''' |20,574.91 |19,809.68 |19,038.00 |18,260.42 |17,477.40 |16,689.39 |15,896.74 |15,099.79 |14,298.85 |13,494.17 |- | '''EBIT''' |'''39,104.56''' |'''40,274.04''' |'''36,820.05''' |'''37,957.65''' |'''34,474.42''' |'''35,585.12''' |'''32,077.04''' |'''33,164.70''' |'''29,635.21''' |'''30,702.93''' |- | '''Depreciation''' |13,967.75 |10,824.39 |12,287.86 |9,144.50 |10,607.97 |7,464.61 |8,928.08 |5,784.72 |7,248.20 |4,104.83 |- | '''CapEx''' | -16,095.57 | -15,017.62 | -13,971.98 | -12,959.48 | -11,980.90 | -11,036.89 | -10,128.07 | -9,254.97 | -8,418.08 | -7,617.84 |- | '''Current Assets''' |114,484.58 |123,441.44 |132,398.29 |141,355.15 |150,312.00 |159,268.86 |168,225.71 |177,182.57 |186,139.43 |195,096.28 |- | '''Cash''' |34,184.42 |32,913.03 |31,630.91 |30,338.98 |29,038.03 |27,728.77 |26,411.82 |25,087.72 |23,756.98 |22,420.04 |- | '''Current Liabilities''' |101,117.57 |108,833.19 |116,548.82 |124,264.45 |131,980.07 |139,695.70 |147,411.33 |155,126.95 |162,842.58 |170,558.21 |- |'''NCWC''' | -20,817.41 | -18,304.78 | -15,781.44 | -13,248.28 | -10,706.10 | -8,155.62 | -5,597.43 | -3,032.11 | -460.14 |2,118.03 |- | '''NCWC (inc/dec)''' |5,580.41 | -2,512.63 | -2,523.35 | -2,533.16 | -2,542.17 | -2,550.49 | -2,558.18 | -2,565.32 | -2,571.97 | -2,578.17 |- | '''FCF''' |'''25,351.15''' |'''15,847.60''' |'''16,411.76''' |'''14,908.14''' |'''15,390.58''' |'''13,804.90''' |'''14,204.97''' |'''12,536.66''' |'''12,853.86''' |'''11,102.46''' |} [[File:FCF bp.png|center|thumb|709x709px|Free Cash Flow Forecast]] The following table and graphs show the assumptions used to forecast financials for the DCF valuation. {| class="wikitable" | '''Assumptions''' |'''2018''' |'''2019''' |'''2020''' |'''2021''' |'''2022''' |'''2023''' |'''2024''' |'''2025''' |'''2026''' |'''2027''' |'''2028''' |'''2029''' |'''2030''' |'''2031''' |'''2032''' |- | '''Purchases % of revenue''' |76.9% |75.3% |54.4% |58.9% |58.4% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |- | '''P&M % of revenue''' |7.7% |7.8% |21.2% |16.4% |11.9% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |- | '''D&A Expenses % of revenue''' |4.1% |4.0% |9.8% |7.6% |5.6% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |- | '''CapEx % of revenue''' |5.6% |5.5% |11.6% |6.9% |5.0% |4.8% |4.7% |4.5% |4.4% |4.2% |4.1% |3.9% |3.8% |3.6% |3.5% |- | '''Cash % of revenue''' |7.1% |7.5% |27.9% |16.6% |9.9% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |} The purchases forecast was averaged over the previous years, and this average was applied going forwards. The same was done for P&M expenses, D&A expenses and Cash. CapEx displayed a declining pattern, and this is also in-line with bp's targets of reducing CapEx to 2030. The following shows graphs for other variables that were forecast. [[File:Revenue Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|716x716px|The upper confidence bound was used to forecast the revenues for the DCF valuation.]] [[File:Assets Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|722x722px]] [[File:Depreciation Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|723x723px]] [[File:Liabilities Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|725x725px]]
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