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BP p.l.c.
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=== Forecasts === The following table shows how the financials have been forecast for a period of 10 years. {| class="wikitable" | '''Units ($m)''' |'''2023''' |'''2024''' |'''2025''' |'''2026''' |'''2027''' |'''2028''' |'''2029''' |'''2030''' |'''2031''' |'''2032''' |- | '''Total Revenue''' |331,884.34 |319,540.81 |307,093.20 |294,550.32 |281,919.91 |269,208.77 |256,422.93 |243,567.76 |230,648.06 |217,668.16 |- | '''Purchases''' |215,089.73 |207,090.06 |199,022.93 |190,894.06 |182,708.46 |174,470.55 |166,184.22 |157,852.96 |149,479.88 |141,067.78 |- | '''P&M Expenses''' |43,147.39 |41,542.64 |39,924.36 |38,293.69 |36,651.65 |34,999.11 |33,336.85 |31,665.59 |29,985.93 |28,298.45 |- | '''D&A Expenses''' |20,574.91 |19,809.68 |19,038.00 |18,260.42 |17,477.40 |16,689.39 |15,896.74 |15,099.79 |14,298.85 |13,494.17 |- | '''EBIT''' |'''39,104.56''' |'''40,274.04''' |'''36,820.05''' |'''37,957.65''' |'''34,474.42''' |'''35,585.12''' |'''32,077.04''' |'''33,164.70''' |'''29,635.21''' |'''30,702.93''' |- | '''Depreciation''' |13,967.75 |10,824.39 |12,287.86 |9,144.50 |10,607.97 |7,464.61 |8,928.08 |5,784.72 |7,248.20 |4,104.83 |- | '''CapEx''' | -16,095.57 | -15,017.62 | -13,971.98 | -12,959.48 | -11,980.90 | -11,036.89 | -10,128.07 | -9,254.97 | -8,418.08 | -7,617.84 |- | '''Current Assets''' |114,484.58 |123,441.44 |132,398.29 |141,355.15 |150,312.00 |159,268.86 |168,225.71 |177,182.57 |186,139.43 |195,096.28 |- | '''Cash''' |34,184.42 |32,913.03 |31,630.91 |30,338.98 |29,038.03 |27,728.77 |26,411.82 |25,087.72 |23,756.98 |22,420.04 |- | '''Current Liabilities''' |101,117.57 |108,833.19 |116,548.82 |124,264.45 |131,980.07 |139,695.70 |147,411.33 |155,126.95 |162,842.58 |170,558.21 |- |'''NCWC''' | -20,817.41 | -18,304.78 | -15,781.44 | -13,248.28 | -10,706.10 | -8,155.62 | -5,597.43 | -3,032.11 | -460.14 |2,118.03 |- | '''NCWC (inc/dec)''' |5,580.41 | -2,512.63 | -2,523.35 | -2,533.16 | -2,542.17 | -2,550.49 | -2,558.18 | -2,565.32 | -2,571.97 | -2,578.17 |- | '''FCF''' |'''25,351.15''' |'''15,847.60''' |'''16,411.76''' |'''14,908.14''' |'''15,390.58''' |'''13,804.90''' |'''14,204.97''' |'''12,536.66''' |'''12,853.86''' |'''11,102.46''' |} [[File:FCF bp.png|center|thumb|709x709px|Free Cash Flow Forecast]] The following table and graphs show the assumptions used to forecast financials for the DCF valuation. {| class="wikitable" | '''Assumptions''' |'''2018''' |'''2019''' |'''2020''' |'''2021''' |'''2022''' |'''2023''' |'''2024''' |'''2025''' |'''2026''' |'''2027''' |'''2028''' |'''2029''' |'''2030''' |'''2031''' |'''2032''' |- | '''Purchases % of revenue''' |76.9% |75.3% |54.4% |58.9% |58.4% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |64.8% |- | '''P&M % of revenue''' |7.7% |7.8% |21.2% |16.4% |11.9% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |13.0% |- | '''D&A Expenses % of revenue''' |4.1% |4.0% |9.8% |7.6% |5.6% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |6.2% |- | '''CapEx % of revenue''' |5.6% |5.5% |11.6% |6.9% |5.0% |4.8% |4.7% |4.5% |4.4% |4.2% |4.1% |3.9% |3.8% |3.6% |3.5% |- | '''Cash % of revenue''' |7.1% |7.5% |27.9% |16.6% |9.9% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |10.3% |} The purchases forecast was averaged over the previous years, and this average was applied going forwards. The same was done for P&M expenses, D&A expenses and Cash. CapEx displayed a declining pattern, and this is also in-line with bp's targets of reducing CapEx to 2030. The following shows graphs for other variables that were forecast. [[File:Revenue Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|716x716px|The upper confidence bound was used to forecast the revenues for the DCF valuation.]] [[File:Assets Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|722x722px]] [[File:Depreciation Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|723x723px]] [[File:Liabilities Forecast bp.png|center|thumb|725x725px]]
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