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[[File:Freetradelogo.jpg|150px]]
[[File:Freetradelogo.jpg|150px]]


Freetrade’s mission is to get everyone investing. A FCA-regulated stockbroker, and member of the London Stock Exchange.
* Freetrade is a company that's on a mission to get everyone investing.  
 
* It's main offering is an app that enables people in the UK and Sweden to buy and sell around 6,000 investments without paying any trading commissions.
* 1.1m users, over 600% since May 2020’s crowdfunding.
* Assuming that Freetrade increases its share of the global brokerage market to 10% (from ccc%) and other assumptions, the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is ccc%, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years time.
* £1bn in client assets.
* The degree of risk associated with an investment in Freetrade is 'high'.
* £50m oversubscribed Series B in 2020.
* Rolling out EU stocks in anticipation of launch across Europe.


==Operations==
==Operations==
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|-
|-
|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
|What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?
|$2,975,000,000
|$1,300,000,000
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global automotive market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (30th May 2022), in terms of revenue, is $2.975 trillion.
|Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions<ref group="Note" name="Note01" />, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.
 
 
If the TAM is defined as the global energy market, then research suggests that the estimated size of the market is $6.777 trillion.<ref name=":16">https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/sustainable/sites/bartlett/files/an_exploration_of_energy_cost_ranges_limits_and_adjustment_process.pdf</ref>
|-
|-
|What is the estimated company lifespan?
|What is the estimated company lifespan?
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|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.<ref>Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x</nowiki></ref> Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.<ref>Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.</ref>
|Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.<ref>Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x</nowiki></ref> Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.<ref>Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.</ref>


In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.<ref>Dickinson, 2010.</ref> A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Freetrade's operating cash flows positive (+), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the second stage of growth (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.
In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.<ref>Dickinson, 2010.</ref> A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Freetrade's operating cash flows negative (-), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.
 
On 7th February 2022, Freetrade said it currently expects: to continue to generate net positive operating cash flow as it has done in the last four fiscal years; its capital expenditures to be between $5.00 to $7.00 billion in 2022 and each of the next two fiscal years; and its ability to be self-funding to continue as long as macroeconomic factors support current trends in its sales. Accordingly, based on forward looking statements, it appears that the company is in stage two of the business lifecycle  (i.e. the 'growth' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of three main stages of growth remaining.
|-
|-
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?
|What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?
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The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):   
The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):   


#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $3.0 trillion);
#The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $1.3 trillion);
#Freetrade peak market share (the default share is 10%); and
#Freetrade peak market share (the default share is 10%); and
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 10%).
#The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 10%).

Revision as of 21:35, 6 June 2023

Freetradelogo.jpg

  • Freetrade is a company that's on a mission to get everyone investing.
  • It's main offering is an app that enables people in the UK and Sweden to buy and sell around 6,000 investments without paying any trading commissions.
  • Assuming that Freetrade increases its share of the global brokerage market to 10% (from ccc%) and other assumptions, the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is ccc%, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years time.
  • The degree of risk associated with an investment in Freetrade is 'high'.

Operations

How did the idea of the company come about?

ccc

The mission is to get everyone investing.

What's the mission of the company?

What are the main offerings of the company?

The main offering is an app that enables users to buy and sell investments without paying any trading commissions.

From which place(s) are the offerings able to be purchased?

The main places that the offerings are able to be purchased is through the company's app, which can be downloaded from the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

From which place(s) are the offerings promoted?

The main way that Freetrade promotes the offerings is through word of mouth, via its referral scheme.

What's the current strategy of the company?

ccc

Market

Total Addressable Market

Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.[1]

Serviceable Available Market

Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global equity brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $334 billion.

Serviceable Obtainable Market

Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the UK equity brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $33 billion.

Competition

Freetrade packages
Basic Standard Plus
Pricing £0.00/month £5.99/month £11.99/month
Account type(s) General investment account General investment account and Stocks and shares ISA General investment account, Stocks and shares ISA and Self-invested personal pension (SIPP)
Benefits Commission-free trades Commission-free trades Commission-free trades
Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.99% FX fee Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.59% FX fee Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.39% FX fee
Fractional US Shares Fractional US Shares Fractional US Shares
Access to more than 1,500 stocks, including the most popular shares and ETFs Full range of over 6,000 US, UK and EU stocks and ETFs. Full range of over 6,000 US, UK and EU stocks and ETFs.
Automated order types Automated order types
Advanced stock fundamentals Advanced stock fundamentals
1% on uninvested cash, up to a maximum of £2,000 3% on uninvested cash, up to a maximum of £4,000
Priority customer service
Freetrade Web beta


Freetrade Robinhood Trading 212 Hargreaves Lansdown
Number of investments offered 6,000[2] 12,000[3][4]

Team

The company's founder-led, multi-disciplinary management team brings together all-star talent from tech titans, financial service giants, and top-tier consulting firms.

Adam Dodds, Founder & CEO

The instigator of this whole Freetrade thing. ACA and CFA qualified. Ex-KPMG, experience auditing global banks and brokerages; advising on financial services, fintech M&A.

Viktor Nebehaj, CMO & Co-founder

Drives the company's customer growth across the whole marketing stack. Used to scale Google's core search business in Europe. Successfully grew startups across EU & Asia.

Paul Brooking, CFO

Previously Deputy CFO at Revolut, ex Paysafe, almost 20 years at IG and PwC.

Dan Tedman, VP Risk & Compliance

Joined the regulator in 2010. 5+ years working at the FSA and Bank of England then moved to Alvarez and Marsal as a regulatory consultant.

Duncan Leslie, VP Product

A brokerage industry veteran, Duncan spent 15 years at Hargreaves Lansdown prior to Monzo as Product Director.

Amy Gilman, Associate Director of People

Previous award-winning Director of L&D at La Fosse Associates. Amy is in charge of all things people & culture.

Alan Wright, Director of Engineering, UK

A hugely experienced engineering leader, Alan joined Freetrade this year, bringing experience from Spotify and Monzo.

Timothy Drew, Director of Engineering, Australia

Tim is the original architect of Freetrade's FCP. Now in Aus at our Brisbane engineering office.

Financials

One key thing to note is that Freetrade have been given a way free shares. Essentially, Freetrade paid people to use its offering, with the aim of using the offering regularly.

The company was incorporated on 28th September 2015. [5]

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year end date 30/09/2016 30/09/2017 30/09/2018 30/09/2019 30/09/2020 30/09/2021 30/09/2022 30/09/2023 30/09/2024 30/09/2025 30/09/2026 30/09/2027 30/09/2028 30/09/2029
Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Historic Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Profit and loss
Revenue (£'000) 0 0 0 86 1,660 12,682 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Loss before tax (£'000) N/A (504) (1,165) (3,470) (9,517) (18,247) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cash flow statement
Net cash flows from operating activities (7,980) (17,848)
Net cash flows from investing activities (1,771) (1,918)
Net cash flows from financing activities 12,715 35,036

According to Crunchbase, Freetrade has raised a total of $135.5 million since the company's inception across 13 funding rounds.[6]

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market? $1,300,000,000 Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions[Note 1], it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.
What is the estimated company lifespan? 60 years Freetrade employs around 110,000, making the company a large organisation (more than 10,000 employees), and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.[7]
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company? 3% Research shows that the growth rate of the global automotive market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product[8], which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022)[9].
What's the estimated company peak market share? 10% The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Freetrade is around 10%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Freetrade's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.8%.
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue? Gaussian Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped)[10], so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue? 6 years Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Freetrade's current revenue amount (i.e. £12.68 million) and Freetrade's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Freetrade's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through? 4 stages Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth.[11] Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation.[12]

In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company.[13] A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Freetrade's operating cash flows negative (-), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.

What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1? 30% Research suggests 30%.[14]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2? 10% Research suggests 10%.[14]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3? 20% Research suggests 20%.[14]
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4? 40% Research suggests 40%.[14]
Growth stage 1
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 79% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 11% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the rate for its peers is 11%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 7% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1)[15], and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000) Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000) Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 79% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 11% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the rate for its peers is 11%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 7% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2)[15], and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000) Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000) Zero Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 62% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[15], and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 13% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[15], and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 14% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[15], and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 4% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[15], and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 3% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3)[15], and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing ($000) Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000) Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%) 99% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%) 15% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%) 0% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%) 37% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 1% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%) 10% Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4)[15], and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing ($000) Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000) Zero The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.

Risks

As with any investment, investing in Freetrade carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the key risks highlighted below, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Freetrade is higher than in a company that's trading on a public market (such as Hargreaves Lansdown).

Early-stage investment

Freetrade is at one of the earliest stages of the business lifecycle, and the failure rate of companies at that stage is usually much higher than those at a later stage. As of 2022, 57% of companies that are incorporated in the United Kingdom fail within the first five years of the companies incorporation, according to the Office for National Statistics.[16]

Illiquid investment

The number of transactions in shares of private companies is usually significantly lower than in public companies, typically resulting in it taking longer to sell shares in private companies at a price that is at least equal to the price that the shares were bought at. Accordingly, the Freetrade investment opportunity is considered to be higher risk than more liquid companies.

Valuation

Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach.; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).

Freetrade has never paid a dividend and is not expected to do so for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method, rather than the dividend discount model or any other method.

What's the expected return of an investment in the company?

The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative 24%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £760 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Freetrade achieves its expected return level (of negative 24%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'unsuitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use? Discounted cash flow Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach[17], so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).

Freetrade has never paid cash dividends, and on 7th February 2022, it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).

Which financial forecasts to use? Stockhub The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so the Stockhub users suggest using those.
Growth stage 1
Discount rate (%) 15% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 90% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 90%.
Growth stage 2
Discount rate (%) 15% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 90% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.
Growth stage 3
Discount rate (%) 10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 100% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
Growth stage 4
Discount rate (%) 10% There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%) 100% Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
Other key inputs
What's the current value of the company? $950.54 billion As at 5th June 2022, the current value of the Freetrade company is $950.54 billion.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and five years time Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years.[18] Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Sensitive analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

  1. The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $1.3 trillion);
  2. Freetrade peak market share (the default share is 10%); and
  3. The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 10%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Freetrade investment is shown in the table below.

Freetrade investment expected return sensitive analysis
Main input 50% worse Unchanged 50% better
The size of the total addressable market N/A (24%) N/A
Freetrade peak market share N/A (24%) N/A
The discount rate N/A (24%) N/A

Appendix

Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

What's the expected return of an investment in Freetrade using the relative valuation approach?

Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Freetrade Inc over the next five years is 4.4x. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £4,400 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Freetrade achieves its expected return level (of 4.4x), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs
Description Value Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use? Growth-adjusted EV/sales For the numerator, the Stockhub users believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, the Stockhub users believe that because it expects Freetrade to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, the Stockhub users think that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use? Year 1 Stockhub suggests that with sales forecast to grow exponential over the five year forecast period, it's best to use forward-looking data, rather than historic data.

In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, Stockhub suggests that in order to account for the forecasted exponential growth of the business, it's best to use one at the end of the forecast period (i.e. Year 5).

In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use? Year 2 to 4, from now Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 2 to 4.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use? 89x In Stockhub's view, Freetrade closest peer is Nutmeg. Nutmeg was acquired by JP Morgan in June 2022 for £700 million.
Which financial forecasts to use? Stockhub The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
What's the current value of the Stockhub company? £500 million As at 21st May 2022, the current value of its company at £500 million.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? Between now and five years time Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Freetrade peer(s)

Valuation table
Investments Industry Enterprise value/sales 1-year forward revenue growth rates (%) Growth-adjusted enterprise value/sales ratio
Apple, Inc Internet content & communication 7.27x 8.20% 89x
Hargreaves Lansdown 5.34x

Funding History[19]

As of November 24th 2021, the company held a valuation of £658 million. However, it has since executed two funding rounds through debt financing instead of equity, which hints at a potential decrease in its valuation from the previous £658 million.

Date announced Investment type Post money valuation Amount No. of investors
15/09/2022 Equity Crowdfunding - US$1,733,820.00 -
20/05/2022 Debt Financing - £30,000,000.00 6
24/11/2021 Equity Crowdfunding £658,363,176.00 £8,363,176.00 -
23/03/2021 Series B US$345,057,713.00 £35,000,000.00 4
14/05/2020 Equity Crowdfunding - £7,099,999.00 -
31/10/2019 Series A - £12,000,000.00 1
25/06/2019 Equity Crowdfunding - £3,793,410.00 1
25/04/2019 Equity Crowdfunding - US$1,927,630.00 1
29/07/2018 Equity Crowdfunding £46,516,630.00 £3,516,630.00 1
18/05/2018 Pre Seed - - 2
05/03/2017 Equity Crowdfunding - £1,071,850.00 4
01/03/2017 Seed - - -
28/07/2016 Equity Crowdfunding £2,069,980.00 £169,980.00 -

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Economic links to cash flow patterns
Cash flow type Introduction Growth Shake out Mature Decline
Operating - + +/- + -
Investing - - +/- - +
Financing + + +/- - +/-

Other information

Freetrade was unsuccessful in its 'Freetrade' word application in the EU.[20]

Actions

To invest in Freetrade, click here.

To contact Freetrade, click here.

References and notes


  1. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5141120/securities-brokerages-and-stock-exchanges
  2. https://freetrade.io/stock-list#stock-list-table
  3. https://www.trading212.com/
  4. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.avuscapital.trading212
  5. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09797821
  6. https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/freetrade-limited/company_financials
  7. Stadler, Enduring Success, 3–5.
  8. http://www.robertpicard.net/files/econgrowthandadvertising.pdf
  9. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/gdp-growth-rate
  10. http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf
  11. Levie J, Lichtenstein BB (2010) A terminal assessment of stages theory: Introducing a dynamic approach to entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship: Theory & Practice 34(2): 317–350. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2010.00377.x
  12. Stef Hinfelaar et al.:, 2019.
  13. Dickinson, 2010.
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 http://escml.umd.edu/Papers/ObsCPMT.pdf
  15. 15.00 15.01 15.02 15.03 15.04 15.05 15.06 15.07 15.08 15.09 15.10 15.11 15.12 15.13 15.14 15.15 15.16 15.17 15.18 15.19 15.20 15.21 15.22 15.23 http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf
  16. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/bulletins/businessdemography/2020#the-south-west-continued-to-have-the-highest-five-year-survival-rate
  17. Demirakos et al., 2010; Gleason et al., 2013
  18. https://www.newyorkfed.org/mediabrary/media/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9809.pdf
  19. https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/freetrade-limited
  20. https://www.trademarkelite.com/europe/trademark/trademark-detail/014989172/FREETRADE


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