Freetrade

Freetrade is a company that's on a mission to get everyone investing. It's main offering is an app that enables people in the UK and Sweden to buy and sell around 6,000 investments without paying any trading commissions. Assuming that Freetrade increases its share of the global brokerage market to 10% (from ccc%) and other assumptions, the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is ccc%, which equates to an annual return of ccc%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £ccc in five years time. The degree of risk associated with an investment in Freetrade is 'high'.

Freetrade Limited

Freetrade app
Type	Private company
Industry	Financial services Investment and brokerage services
Founded	September 25, 2015 (2015-09-25) in London, United Kingdom.
Founders	Adam Dodds Davide Fioranelli Andre Mohamed
Headquarters	10 Devonshire Square, London , United Kingdom
Revenue	£12.68 million (2021)
Operating income	£(18.23) million (2021)
Net income	£(17.11) million (2021)
Total assets	£29.33 million (2021)
Total equity	£29.33 million (2021)
Number of employees	201 (2021)
Website	https://freetrade.io/

Operations

How did the idea of the company come about?

The idea for Freetrade Limited came about when the company's founder and CEO, Adam Dodds, relocated from Canada to the UK. He had been an investor since his teenage years and was working as a Manager at KPMG. Upon arriving in the UK, Dodds was surprised by the quality of investment platforms available, particularly in terms of their cost and usability. This experience appears to have been instrumental in his decision to create Freetrade, which aimed to offer a superior investment platform in these respects.

What's the mission of the company?

The mission of the company is to get everyone investing.

What are the main offerings of the company?

The main offering of the company is an app that enables users to buy and sell investments without paying any trading commissions.

What is the price of the offerings?

The price of the offerings are as follows:

• £0 per month for the 'Basic' package.
• £5.99 per month for the 'Standard' plan; and
• £11.99 per month for the 'Plus' plan.

Freetrade packages

	Basic	Standard	Plus
Pricing	£0.00/month	£5.99/month	£11.99/month
Accounts
General investment account (GIA)	Yes	Yes	Yes
Stocks and shares ISA	No	Yes	Yes
Self-invested personal pension (SIPP)	Yes	Yes	Yes
Benefits
Commission-free trades	Yes	Yes	Yes
US fractional shares	Yes	Yes	Yes
Range of stocks	1,500	6,000	6,000
Automated order types	No	Yes	Yes
1% interest on a maximum £2k uninvested cash	No	Yes	No
3% interest on a maximum £4k uninvested cash	No	No	Yes
Customer service	Basic	Basic	Priority
Advanced stock fundamentals	No	Yes	Yes
Freetrade Web beta	No	No	Yes
FX fee	0.99%	0.59%	0.39%

From which place(s) are the offerings able to be purchased?

The main places that the offerings are able to be purchased is in the United Kingdom and Sweden through the company's app, which can be downloaded from the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

From which place(s) are the offerings promoted?

The main way that Freetrade promotes the offerings is through word of mouth, via its referral scheme.

What's the current strategy of the company?

The company's main strategy is to make its offerings available in other geographical regions, such as Sweden and the rest of the EU. At the same time, Freetrade plans to release new features, thereby improving the user experience of the offerings.

Team

The company's founder-led, multi-disciplinary management team brings together all-star talent from tech titans, financial service giants, and top-tier consulting firms.

Adam Dodds, Founder & CEO

The instigator of this whole Freetrade thing. ACA and CFA qualified. Ex-KPMG, experience auditing global banks and brokerages; advising on financial services, fintech M&A.

Viktor Nebehaj, CMO & Co-founder

Drives the company's customer growth across the whole marketing stack. Used to scale Google's core search business in Europe. Successfully grew startups across EU & Asia.

Paul Brooking, CFO

Previously Deputy CFO at Revolut, ex Paysafe, almost 20 years at IG and PwC.

Dan Tedman, VP Risk & Compliance

Joined the regulator in 2010. 5+ years working at the FSA and Bank of England then moved to Alvarez and Marsal as a regulatory consultant.

Duncan Leslie, VP Product

A brokerage industry veteran, Duncan spent 15 years at Hargreaves Lansdown prior to Monzo as Product Director.

Amy Gilman, Associate Director of People

Previous award-winning Director of L&D at La Fosse Associates. Amy is in charge of all things people & culture.

Alan Wright, Director of Engineering, UK

A hugely experienced engineering leader, Alan joined Freetrade this year, bringing experience from Spotify and Monzo.

Timothy Drew, Director of Engineering, Australia

Tim is the original architect of Freetrade's FCP. Now in Aus at our Brisbane engineering office.

Market

Total Addressable Market

Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.

Serviceable Available Market

Here, the serviceable available market (SAM) is defined as the global equity brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $334 billion.

Serviceable Obtainable Market

Here, the serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is defined as the UK equity brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $33 billion.

Competition

	Freetrade Basic	Freetrade Standard	Freetrade Plus	Trading 212	Hargreaves Lansdown	Robinhood
Commission free trades	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Number of investments offered	1,500	6,000	6,000	12,000
FX fees	0.99%	0.59%	0.39%	0.15%
Custody fee	Free	£5.99/month	£11.99/month	Free
Account closure fee	Free	Free	Free	Free
Statements fee	Free	Free	Free	Free
GBP interest rate	0%	1%	3%	1.65%
EUR interest rate	0%	0%	0%	1.25%
USD interest rate	0%	0%	0%	1.9%

Financials

The company was incorporated on 28th September 2015.

Revenue

Revenue is related to services provided to customers in the UK and is stated net of value added tax or other sales tax. It is recognised in the consolidated statement of comprehensive income on the following basis:

Transaction revenue

The Group does not charge a commission on stockbroking transactions entered into on behalf of customers but does provide a foreign exchange service to enable customers to purchase instruments listed on exchanges in the United States and Europe. Revenue consisting of a predetermined flat fee is recognised on the execution date of the transaction. This is the date on which services are provided to customers and the group becomes entitled to the revenue. There is no variable consideration in relation to transactional revenue.

Transaction revenue for the financial year ended 30th September 2021 was £9,408,000 (2020: £1,323,000), which represented 74% (2020: 80%) of total revenue.

Recurring revenue

Revenue consisting of account subscription fees, are charged monthly in advance. All obligations to the customer are satisfied across the period in which the service is provided. Recognition of recurring revenue is on an accruals basis over the period in which the service is provided. The consideration due is based on a fixed fee and there is no variable income in which judgement or estimation is involved.

Recurring revenue for the financial year ended 30th September 2021 was £3,274,000 (2020: £338,000), which represented 26% (2020: 20%) of total revenue.

Other

A key thing to note is that Freetrade has been given a way free shares. Essentially, Freetrade paid people to use its offering, with the aim of using the offering regularly.

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Year end date	30/09/2016	30/09/2017	30/09/2018	30/09/2019	30/09/2020	30/09/2021	30/09/2022	30/09/2023	30/09/2024	30/09/2025	30/09/2026	30/09/2027	30/09/2028	30/09/2029
	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
Profit and loss
Revenue (£'000)	0	0	0	86	1,660	12,682	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cost of sales	0	0	0	N/A	(440)	(1,639)
Gross profit	0	0	0	N/A	1,220	11,043
Other operating expenses	N/A	(525)	(1,301)	(3,970)	(10,737)	(29,274)
Operating loss	N/A	(525)	(1,301)	(3,884)	(9,517)	(18,231)
Finance costs					0	(16)
Loss before tax (£'000)	N/A	(525)	(1,165)	(3,470)	(9,517)	(18,247)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tax on loss on ordinary activities	N/A	21	164	414	557	1,136
Loss for the year	N/A	(504)	(1,165)	(3,470)	(8,960)	(17,111)
Other comprehensive income	N/A	0	0	0	0	0
Total comprehensive expense for the year	N/A	(504)	(1,165)	(3,470)	(8,960)	(17,111)
Balance sheet
Assets
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment	3	9	39	76	94	5,588
Intangible assets	0	3	93	828	1,905	2,354
Trade and other receievables	0	13	0	0	0	731
Total non-current assets	3	25	132	904	1,999	8,673
Current assets
Trade and other receiveables	4	2	186	847	2,761	7,859
Corporation tax receivables	0	0	0	0	557	1,021
Cash and cash equivalents	112	727	2,684	3,355	6,730	22,672
Total current assets	116	729	2,870	4,202	10,048	31,552
Liabilitites
Current liabilities
Trade and other payables	18	84	208	297	1,461	5,381
Lease liabilities	0	0	0	0	0	2,127
Total current liabilities	18	84	208	297	1,461	7,508
Net current assets	98	645	2,662	3,905	8,587	24,044
Non-current liabilities
Lease liabilities	0	0	0	0	0	3,388
Total non-current liabilities	0	0	0	0	0	3,388
Net assets	101	670	2,794	4,809	10,586	29,329
Equity
Share capital	0	0	0	0	0	0
Share premium	252	1,324	4,610	10,086	22,801	57,837
Other reserves	0	0	3	12	2,034	2,852
Retained earnings	(151)	(654)	(1,819)	(5,289)	(14,249)	(31,360)
Total equity	101	670	2,794	4,809	10,586	29,329
Cash flow statement
Operating activities
Loss before tax	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	(9,517)	(18,247)
Adjustments for:	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	84	331
Depreciation of property, plant and equipment	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	592	1,143
Amortisation of intangible assets	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2,022	818
Share-based payment expenses	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	16
Finance costs	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	(6,819)	(15,939)
Operating cash flows before movements in working capital	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	(2,325)	(5,829)
Increase in trade and other receivables	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1,164	3,920
Cash used in operations	N/A	(455)	(1,257)	(3,909)	(7,980)	(17,848)
Income taxes received	N/A	21	72	95	411	672
Net cash flows from operating activities	N/A	(434)	(1,185)	(3,814)	(7,569)	(17,176)
Investing activities
Purchase of property, plant and equipment	N/A	(8)	(43)	(93)	(102)	(326)
Purchase and development of intangible assets	N/A	(3)	(90)	(898)	(1,669)	(1,592)
Net cash flows from investing activities	N/A	(11)	(133)	(991)	(1,771)	(1,918)
Financing activities
Proceeds on issues of shares	N/A	1,072	3,286	5,476	12,715	35,036
Investment in subsidiary	N/A	(12)	(11)	0	0	0
Net cash flows from financing activities	N/A	1,060	3,275	5,476	12,715	35,036
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents	N/A	615	1,957	671	3,375	15,942
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the year	N/A	112	727	2,684	3,355	6,730
Cash and cash equivalents at end of year	N/A	727	2,684	3,355	6,730	22,672
Other
Number of registered users					248,848	886,743
Assets under management (£'million)					249.1	897.5
Trading volumes (£'billion)					0.8	3.3
Employees (excluding directors)					80	201

According to Crunchbase, Freetrade has raised a total of $135.5 million since the company's inception across 13 funding rounds.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?	$1,300,000,000	Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global brokerage market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (6th May 2023), in terms of revenue, is $1.3 trillion.
What is the estimated company lifespan?	50 years	Currently, Freetrade employs around 201, making the company a small organisation (less than 10,000 employees). That said, given the company's mission, we expect the company to grow to a large organisation, and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?	3%	Research shows that the growth rate of the global automotive market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022).
What's the estimated company peak market share?	10%	The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Freetrade is around 10%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 31st December 2021, Freetrade's current share of the market is estimated at around 1.8%.
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?	Gaussian	Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped), so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?	6 years	Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Freetrade's current revenue amount (i.e. £12.68 million) and Freetrade's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Freetrade's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the Stockhub users suggest using 6 years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within 6 years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through?	4 stages	Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth. Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation. In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company. A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Freetrade's operating cash flows negative (-), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?	30%	Research suggests 30%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2?	10%	Research suggests 10%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3?	20%	Research suggests 20%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4?	40%	Research suggests 40%.
Growth stage 1
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	79%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	11%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the rate for its peers is 11%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)	7%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	79%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 79%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	11%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the rate for its peers is 11%.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)	7%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the margin for its peers is 7%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2), and the amount for its peers is 15%.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	Stockhub suggests that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	62%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the margin for its peers is 62%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	13%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the margin for its peers is 13%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	14%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the rate for its peers is 14%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)	4%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the amount for its peers is 4%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	3%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3), and the amount for its peers is 3%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	99%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the margin for its peers is 99%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	15%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the margin for its peers is 15%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	0%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the rate for its peers is 0%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation as a proportion of revenue (%)	37%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 37%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	1%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 1%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working capital as a proportion of revenue (%)	10%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4), and the amount for its peers is 10%. Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing ($000)	Zero	The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the net borrowing figure is zero.
Interest amount ($000)	Zero	The Stockhub users suggest that for simplicity, the interest amount figure is zero.

Risks

As with any investment, investing in Freetrade carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the key risks highlighted below, the degree of risk associated with an investment in Freetrade is higher than in a company that's trading on a public market (such as Hargreaves Lansdown).

Early-stage investment

Freetrade is at one of the earliest stages of the business lifecycle, and the failure rate of companies at that stage is usually much higher than those at a later stage. As of 2022, 57% of companies that are incorporated in the United Kingdom fail within the first five years of the companies incorporation, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Illiquid investment

The number of transactions in shares of private companies is usually significantly lower than in public companies, typically resulting in it taking longer to sell shares in private companies at a price that is at least equal to the price that the shares were bought at. Accordingly, the Freetrade investment opportunity is considered to be higher risk than more liquid companies.

Regulatory

Freetrade operates in an industry with extensive and comprehensive regulation. The risk that the company fails to comply with the existing standards of the regulatory system has the potential impact for financial penalties, regulatory censure and negative publicity. There is also a risk that the regulatory environment evolves in a manner that has a negative impact on its business and operations, whether through reduced revenue, higher costs or increases in capital and liquidity requirements.

Business

Freetrade operates in a competitive environment and runs the risk that revenue and customer growth do not meet expectations or slow down. Freetrade’s customer activity is sensitive to market conditions and volatility.

Operational

High volume or levels of activity through the trading platform can place stress on Freetrade’s systems, people and processes, which could result in service outages or in Freetrade being unable to deliver the level of service that its customers expect. Poor customer service and outcomes could result in a loss of customers and reputational damage.

Conduct

Freetrade runs the risk that its culture, values and actions fail to adequately support customer focused conduct and thereby lead to potentially poor customer outcomes or not treating customers fairly. Equally, Freetrade interacts with financial markets and poorly controlled activities could threaten the sound, stable, resilient and transparent operation of the financial markets. These risks could result in regulatory censure, as well as a reputational impact, a loss of customers and increased difficulty in attracting new customers.

Information security

Freetrade or its trusted third party service providers could suffer a data breach as a result of a cyber attack, just as any other financial services company. Such a breach could result in financial penalties or censure from both data protection and financial regulators. As well as reputational damage impacting Freetrade's ability to attract and retain customers.

Third party

Freetrade contracts with third-party providers to provide services to customers and to support back-end processes. The risk of a loss of service from a third-party provider which could result in a delay or inability to process customer transactions or perform regulatory reconciliations and could result in customer dissatisfaction and financial loss to Freetrade through a reduction in transactions through the trading platform or regulatory penalties.

Valuation

Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach.; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report).

Freetrade has never paid a dividend and is not expected to do so for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method, rather than the dividend discount model or any other method.

What's the expected return of an investment in the company?

The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is negative 24%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £760 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Freetrade achieves its expected return level (of negative 24%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'unsuitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use?	Discounted cash flow	Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). Freetrade has never paid cash dividends, and on 7th February 2022, it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).
Which financial forecasts to use?	Stockhub	The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so the Stockhub users suggest using those.
Growth stage 1
Discount rate (%)	15%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	90%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 90%.
Growth stage 2
Discount rate (%)	15%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	90%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 90%.
Growth stage 3
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
Growth stage 4
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
Other key inputs
What's the current value of the company?	$950.54 billion	As at 5th June 2022, the current value of the Freetrade company is $950.54 billion.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and five years time	Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Sensitive analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Freetrade investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

1. The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $1.3 trillion);
2. Freetrade peak market share (the default share is 10%); and
3. The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 10%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Freetrade investment is shown in the table below.

Freetrade investment expected return sensitive analysis

Main input	50% worse	Unchanged	50% better
The size of the total addressable market	N/A	(24%)	N/A
Freetrade peak market share	N/A	(24%)	N/A
The discount rate	N/A	(24%)	N/A

Appendix

Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

What's the expected return of an investment in Freetrade using the relative valuation approach?

Accordingly, Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Freetrade Inc over the next five years is 4.4x. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £4,400 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 10% per year and Freetrade achieves its expected return level (of 4.4x), then an investment in the company is considered to be a 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use?	Growth-adjusted EV/sales	For the numerator, the Stockhub users believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, the Stockhub users believe that because it expects Freetrade to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, the Stockhub users think that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use?	Year 1	Stockhub suggests that with sales forecast to grow exponential over the five year forecast period, it's best to use forward-looking data, rather than historic data. In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, Stockhub suggests that in order to account for the forecasted exponential growth of the business, it's best to use one at the end of the forecast period (i.e. Year 5).
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use?	Year 2 to 4, from now	Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 2 to 4.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?	0.21x	In Stockhub's view, Freetrade closest peers are AJ Bell and Hargreaves Lansdown.
Which financial forecasts to use?	Stockhub	The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub company (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
What's the current value of the Stockhub company?	£658 million	As at 24th November 2021, the current value of its company at £658 million.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and five years time	Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.

Freetrade peer(s)

Valuation table

Investments	Industry	Enterprise value/sales	3-year revenue growth rates (%)	(Revenue) growth-adjusted enterprise value/sales ratio
Hargreaves Lansdown		5.34x
Robinhood		(3.52x)
AJ Bell
Freetrade

Hargreaves Lansdown

	30/06/2018	30/06/2019	30/06/2020	30/06/2021	30/06/2022
Profit and loss
Revenue (£'million)	447.50	480.50	550.90	631.00	583.00
Balance sheet
Cash and cash equivalents (£'million)				445.3	488.3
Debt (£'million)				0	0

Hargreaves Lansdown

	07/06/2023
Market capitalisation (£'million)	3,945
Cash and cash equivalents (£'million)	488
Debt (£'million)	0
Enterprise value (£'million)	3,457
Revenue (£'million)	583
EV/sales ratio (x)	5.90
Three-year sales growth rate (%)	1.9
(Sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales ratio (x)	3.10

Hargreaves Lansdown

	07/06/2023
Market capitalisation (£'million)	3,945
Cash and cash equivalents (£'million)	488
Debt (£'million)	0
Enterprise value (£'million)	3,457
Revenue (£'million)	709.07
EV/sales ratio (x)	4.87
Three-year sales growth rate (%)	21.60
(Sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales ratio (x)	0.23

AJ Bell Plc

	30/09/2018	30/09/2019	30/09/2020	30/09/2021	30/09/2022
Profit and loss
Revenue (£'000)			126,749	145,826	163,847
Balance sheet
Cash and cash equivalents (£'000)				94,008	84,030
Debt (£'000)				0	0

AJ Bell Plc

	07/06/2023
Market capitalisation (£'million)	1,296
Cash and cash equivalents (£'million)	84
Debt (£'million)	0
Enterprise value (£'million)	1,212
Revenue (£'million)	164
EV/sales ratio (x)	7.39
Three-year sales growth rate (%)	8.71
(Sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales ratio (x)	0.85

AJ Bell Plc

	07/06/2023
Market capitalisation (£'million)	1,296
Cash and cash equivalents (£'million)	84
Debt (£'million)	0
Enterprise value (£'million)	1,212
One-year ahead revenue (£'million)	212.19
EV/sales ratio (x)	5.71
One -year ahead sales growth rate (%)	29.50
(Sales) growth-adjusted EV/sales ratio (x)	0.19

Trading 212 Group Limited

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Year end date	31/12/2015	31/12/2016	31/12/2017	31/12/2018	31/12/2019	31/12/2020	31/12/2021
	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic	Historic
Profit and loss
Revenue (£'000)	925	3,081				124,077	138,685
Gross profit (£'000)						124,077	138,685
Other operating income
Administrative expenses
Profit from operations	345	1,603
Finance income
Finance expense
Profit before tax
Tax expense
Profit for the year
Exchange (losses)/gains arising on translation on foreign operations
Total comprehensive income
Balance sheet
Cash flow statement
Net cash from/(used in) operating activities					7,306	(9.342)	91,358
Net cash from/(used in) investing activities					121	(1,767)	(1,564)
Net cash from/(used in) financing activities					(3,902)	7,007	370

Funding History

As of November 24th 2021, the company held a valuation of £658 million. However, it has since executed two funding rounds through debt financing instead of equity, which hints at a potential decrease in its valuation from the previous £658 million.

Date announced	Investment type	Post money valuation	Amount	No. of investors
15/09/2022	Equity Crowdfunding	-	US$1,733,820.00	-
20/05/2022	Debt Financing	-	£30,000,000.00	6
24/11/2021	Equity Crowdfunding	£658,363,176.00	£8,363,176.00	-
23/03/2021	Series B	US$345,057,713.00	£35,000,000.00	4
14/05/2020	Equity Crowdfunding	-	£7,099,999.00	-
31/10/2019	Series A	-	£12,000,000.00	1
25/06/2019	Equity Crowdfunding	-	£3,793,410.00	1
25/04/2019	Equity Crowdfunding	-	US$1,927,630.00	1
29/07/2018	Equity Crowdfunding	£46,516,630.00	£3,516,630.00	1
18/05/2018	Pre Seed	-	-	2
05/03/2017	Equity Crowdfunding	-	£1,071,850.00	4
01/03/2017	Seed	-	-	-
28/07/2016	Equity Crowdfunding	£2,069,980.00	£169,980.00	-

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Cash flow type	Introduction	Growth	Shake out	Mature	Decline
Operating	-	+	+/-	+	-
Investing	-	-	+/-	-	+
Financing	+	+	+/-	-	+/-

Other information

Freetrade was unsuccessful in its 'Freetrade' word application in the EU. Does this mean that Freetrade has to pay the trademark holder a fee to use the 'Freetrade' word in the EU?

	Freetrade	Trading 212
Austria	No	Yes
Bulgaria	No	Yes
Croatia	No	Yes
Cyprus	No	Yes
Czech Republic	No	Yes
Denmark	No	Yes
Estonia	No	Yes
Finland	No	Yes
France	No	Yes
French Guiana	No	Yes
Gibraltar	No	Yes
Greece	No	Yes
Guadeloupe	No	Yes
Guernsey	No	Yes
Hungary	No	Yes
Iceland	No	Yes
Ireland	Yes	Yes
Isle of Man	No	Yes
Italy	No	Yes
Jersey	No	Yes
Latvia	No	Yes
Liechtenstein	No	Yes
Lithuania	No	Yes
Luxembourg	No	Yes
Malta	No	Yes
Martinique	No	Yes
Mayotte	No	Yes
Netherlands	Yes	Yes
Norway	No	Yes
Poland	No	Yes
Portugal	No	Yes
Reunion	No	Yes
Romania	No	Yes
Slovakia	No	Yes
Slovenia	No	Yes
Spain	No	Yes
Sweden	No	Yes
Switzerland	No	Yes
United Kingdom​​	Yes	Yes

Actions

To invest in Freetrade, click here.

To contact Freetrade, click here.