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Pantheon Resources Plc
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=== Relative valuation === As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach. ==== What's the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources using the relative valuation approach? ==== Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Pantheon Resources over the next 12-months is 185%. In other words, an £1,000 investment in the company is expected to return £2,849 in one year time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below. ==== What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure? ==== ccc {| class="wikitable" |+Key inputs !Description !Value !Commentary |- |Which type of multiple do you want to use? |Price-to-book value |The price-to-book value is really the only available commonly used value, so we suggest using that. |- |In regards to the price-to-book value multiple, for the book value figure, which year to you want to use? |Year 1 |Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to use a time period of 12 months or less. Accordingly, for the book value figure, we suggest using Year 1, which is on 12th September 2024. |- |In regards to the price-to-book value multipl, what multiple figure do you want to use? |1.54x |Here, we suggest using a multiple of 1.54x, which is in-line with the multiples of Pantheon Resources's peers (for details on the peers can be found in the table below). |- |What is the estimated compound annual growth rate of the book value between one year from now and the most recent value? |46.37% |One year from now is 12th September 2024, and the most recent book value date is 31st December 2022. For simplicity, we based the estimate on the CAGR of Pantheon Resources over the last five years, which is 46.37%. The most recent value is $248,178,354 (as at 31st December 2022). |- |What's the current market capitalisation of the company? |£205.44 million |As at 12th September 2023, the market capitalisation of Pantheon Resources Plc is £205.44 million. |- |Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return? |Between now and one year time |Research suggests that when using the relative valuation approach, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and one year time. |- |What's the FX rate? |$1.25 |The current FX rate of GBPUSD is $1.25. |} {| class="wikitable" |+Peers analysis ! !Market capitalisation (local) !Cash !Debt !Enterprise value !Proved reserves !Probable reserves !Possible reserves !EV/Proved Reserves !EV/Proved + Probable Reserves !EV/Proved + Probable + Possible Reserves |- |Pantheon Resources Plc | | | | | | | | | | |- |88 Energy Limited | | | | | | | | | | |- |Brookside Energy Limited | | | | | | | | | | |- |Diversified Gas & Oil PLC | | | | | | | | | | |- |ConocoPhillips | | | | | | | | | | |} {| class="wikitable" |+Local peers - BICS Best Fit (Algorithm) !Name !Ticker !2Y Corr !Mkt Cap (USD) !BF P/E !BF EV/EBITDA !BF EV/EBIT !BF EV/Rev !LF P/BV |- |Pantheon Resources PLC |PANR LN | |248763255.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.8599 |- |EnQuest PLC |ENQ LN |0.2638 |342484769.1 |1.3755 |1.4467 |2.0561 |0.9302 |0.7375 |- |Harbour Energy PLC |HBR LN |0.2596 |2362103778 |6.4952 |0.9316 |1.8074 |0.6763 |1.6824 |- |Serica Energy PLC |SQZ LN |0.223 |1227222775 | -- | -- | -- | -- |1.7056 |- |Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd |GKP LN |0.2189 |250637412.4 |2.1706 |0.9949 |1.756 |0.6632 |0.453 |- |OKEA ASA |OKEA NO |0.2091 |372011265.3 |3.0588 |0.3939 |0.5296 |0.2736 |1.8361 |- |BLUENORD ASA |BNOR NO |0.2079 |1243069610 |7.3107 |2.866 |3.71 |1.9001 |1.7456 |- |Tullow Oil PLC |TLW LN |0.1981 |666476192.9 |2.2878 |2.685 |3.7652 |2.0689 | -- |- |DNO ASA |DNO NO |0.1976 |921463861.7 |5.3441 |1.3689 |1.9461 |0.8614 |0.7003 |- |Genel Energy Plc |GENL LN |0.1923 |287304379.2 |0.4852 |1.2792 |9.3474 |0.8072 |0.6281 |- |Capricorn Energy PLC |CNE LN |0.0962 |283070688.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.2424 |- | colspan="3" |Mean (Including PANR LN) |745873453.2 |4.0061 |1.4958 |3.1147 |1.0226 |1.0214 |- | colspan="4" |Current Premium to Comps Mean | -- | -- | -- | -- | -15.8058 |} {| class="wikitable" |+North America peers - BICS Best Fit (Algorithm) !Name !Ticker !2Y Corr !Mkt Cap (USD) !BF P/E !BF EV/EBITDA !BF EV/EBIT !BF EV/Rev !LF P/BV |- |Pantheon Resources PLC |PANR LN | |249401660.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.8621 |- |Bonterra Energy Corp |BNE CN |0.2145 |201202900.1 |5.7932 | -- | -- |5.3528 |0.5485 |- |Canacol Energy Ltd |CNE CN |0.2055 |291229291.5 |4.4749 |3.991 |6.2457 |2.7131 |0.8688 |- |Journey Energy Inc |JOY CN |0.1826 |250649018.6 |10.0903 |3.2022 | -- | -- |1.1123 |- |Gran Tierra Energy Inc |GTE US |0.1772 |242916614 |3.0209 |1.6716 |2.4108 |1.0112 |0.5344 |- |Reconnaissance Energy Africa L |RECO CN |0.1628 |201636539 | -- | -- | -- | -- |3.7743 |- |Evolution Petroleum Corp |EPM US |0.1535 |298752800.3 |9.5026 |5.339 |5.8633 |2.5077 |3.1245 |- |Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA |ALV CN |0.149 |258641189.1 |5.3166 | -- |5.022 |3.4221 |2.8451 |- |Amplify Energy Corp |AMPY US |0.1002 |277732974.3 |1.8069 |4.1816 |6.8549 |1.2493 |0.7737 |- |CGX Energy Inc |OYL CN |0.099 |239180966.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |4.342 |- |Global Tech Industries Group I |GTII US |0.0407 |290690567.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |24.9919 |- |Mean | | |254730411.1 |4.407 |3.991 |5.6339 |2.3821 |1.4639 |- |Current Premium to Comps Mean | | | | -- | -- | -- | -- | -41.1063 |} {| class="wikitable" |+Global peers - Global Industry Classification Standard !Name !Ticker !2Y Corr !Mkt Cap (USD) !BF P/E !BF EV/EBITDA !BF EV/EBIT !BF EV/Rev !LF P/BV |- |Pantheon Resources PLC |PANR LN | |248743297.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.8599 |- |Jadestone Energy PLC |JSE LN |0.2226 |256103808.5 |12.1425 |0.8699 |1.7002 |0.3279 |1.7301 |- |Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd |GKP LN |0.2189 |250617304.2 |2.1706 |0.9949 |1.756 |0.6632 |0.4529 |- |Genel Energy Plc |GENL LN |0.1924 |287281329.3 |0.4852 |1.2792 |9.3474 |0.8072 |0.6281 |- |Journey Energy Inc |JOY CN |0.1826 |250722843.5 |10.0903 |3.2022 | -- | -- |1.1123 |- |Gran Tierra Energy Inc |GTE US |0.1772 |242916614 |3.0209 |1.6716 |2.4108 |1.0112 |0.5344 |- |Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA |ALV CN |0.149 |258717367.9 |5.3166 | -- |5.022 |3.4221 |2.8451 |- |Touchstone Exploration Inc |TXP CN |0.1276 |199349168.4 |16.338 |3.3236 |5.7614 |2.0963 |2.5903 |- |La Francaise De L'energie SACA |FDE FP |0.1153 |227020391.8 |11.7018 |7.3477 |9.0049 |4.3978 |2.8113 |- |Amplify Energy Corp |AMPY US |0.1002 |277732974.3 |1.8069 |4.1816 |6.8549 |1.2493 |0.7737 |- |CGX Energy Inc |OYL CN |0.099 |239251413.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- |4.342 |- |Capricorn Energy PLC |CNE LN |0.0962 |283047977.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.2423 |- |Coelacanth Energy Inc |CEI CN |0.0954 |260548386.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- |3.7122 |- |Kistos Holdings PLC |KIST LN |0.0891 |253019056.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- |2.2992 |- |Cohen Development Gas & Oil Lt |CDEV IT |0.0795 |211048552.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |6.5187 |- |Hindustan Oil Exploration Co L |HOE IN |0.0428 |255827680.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- |2.2394 |- | colspan="3" |Mean (Including PANR LN) |250121760.4 |9.0748 |2.7631 |5.3661 |2.0603 |1.4934 |- | colspan="4" |Current Premium to Comps Mean | -- | -- | -- | -- | -42.4215 |} {| class="wikitable" |+North America - Global Industry Classification Standard !Name !Ticker !2Y Corr !Mkt Cap (USD) !BF P/E !BF EV/EBITDA !BF EV/EBIT !BF EV/Rev !LF P/BV |- |Pantheon Resources PLC |PANR LN | |248743297.3 | -- | -- | -- | -- |0.8599 |- |Saturn Oil & Gas Inc |SOIL CN |0.2403 |289188348.4 |1.6041 |0.8074 | -- |0.6336 |0.6728 |- |Bonterra Energy Corp |BNE CN |0.2145 |201232526.3 |5.7932 | -- | -- |5.3528 |0.5485 |- |Canacol Energy Ltd |CNE CN |0.2055 |291272173.8 |4.4749 |3.991 |6.2457 |2.7131 |0.8688 |- |Journey Energy Inc |JOY CN |0.1826 |250685925.6 |10.0903 |3.2022 | -- | -- |1.1123 |- |Gran Tierra Energy Inc |GTE US |0.1772 |242916614 |3.0209 |1.6716 |2.4108 |1.0112 |0.5344 |- |Reconnaissance Energy Africa L |RECO CN |0.1628 |201666229.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |3.7743 |- |Evolution Petroleum Corp |EPM US |0.1535 |298752800.3 |9.5026 |5.339 |5.8633 |2.5077 |3.1245 |- |Alvopetro Energy Ltd/CA |ALV CN |0.149 |258679272.9 |5.3166 | -- |5.022 |3.4221 |2.8451 |- |Lucero Energy Corp |LOU CN |0.132 |324574582.1 |6.5686 |2.2905 |4.647 |1.4365 |0.9152 |- |Touchstone Exploration Inc |TXP CN |0.1276 |199319815.1 |16.338 |3.3236 |5.7614 |2.0963 |2.5903 |- |Amplify Energy Corp |AMPY US |0.1002 |277732974.3 |1.8069 |4.1816 |6.8549 |1.2493 |0.7737 |- |CGX Energy Inc |OYL CN |0.099 |239216184.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |4.342 |- |Coelacanth Energy Inc |CEI CN |0.0954 |260510022 | -- | -- | -- | -- |3.7122 |- |San Juan Basin Royalty Trust |SJT US |0.08 |309016317.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- |81.0503 |- |Empire Petroleum Corp |EP US |0.0627 |181790240 | -- | -- | -- | -- |9.6501 |- |Mean (Including PANR LN) | | |254706082.7 |8.384 |2.7073 |5.6339 |1.945 |1.5358 |- |Current Premium to Comps Mean | | | | -- | -- | -- | -- | -44.0125 |} ==== Sensitivity analysis ==== The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest): # The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value (the default figure is 46.37%); # The price-to-book value multiple (the default multiple 1.57x); and # Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure (the default figure is $248,178,354, or £198,542,683 at the current exchange rate of $1.25). The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Pantheon Resources investment is shown in the table below. {| class="wikitable sortable" |+Pantheon Resources investment expected return sensitivity analysis !Main input !50% worse !Unchanged !50% better |- |The compound annual growth rate of the Pantheon Resources book value between one year ahead and the most recent value |113% |185% |266% |- |The price-to-book value multiple |42% |185% |327% |- |Pantheon Resources most recent book value figure |42% |185% |327% |}
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