Peel Hunt

Company Overview: Peel Hunt is a leading independent investment bank in the UK, known for its strong focus on mid and small-cap companies. With a rich history dating back to 1989, the company has established itself as a trusted advisor and broker, offering services like investment banking, research, trading, and asset management.

Financial Performance: Peel Hunt has demonstrated robust financial health over recent years. The company has shown consistent revenue growth, underpinned by a diversified income stream and a resilient business model. Its balance sheet remains strong, with a healthy liquidity position and a prudent approach to risk management.

Market Position and Competitive Advantage: Peel Hunt occupies a unique position in the market, specialising in mid and small-cap companies. This focus, combined with its comprehensive service offering, has enabled the firm to build deep client relationships and a strong reputation. The company's research capabilities and sector expertise are also key differentiators.

Growth Prospects: The future growth trajectory for Peel Hunt appears promising. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing activity in the mid and small-cap market segments. Furthermore, its ongoing investment in technology and expansion of services are likely to open new revenue streams and enhance client engagement.

Risks and Challenges: Key risks include market volatility, regulatory changes, and increasing competition. However, Peel Hunt's adaptable business model and proactive risk management strategies position it well to navigate these challenges.

Investment Rationale: Based on Peel Hunt's strong market position, consistent financial performance, and clear growth strategy, it presents as a compelling investment opportunity. The company's specialised focus, combined with its robust operational framework, positions it to capitalise on market opportunities and deliver sustainable value to shareholders.

Operations

How did the idea behind the company come about?

The idea behind Peel Hunt LLP originated from the desire to create a specialised, client-focused investment banking service. Founded in 1989 by Charles Peel and Christopher Holdsworth Hunt, the firm aimed to provide high-quality, independent advice and execution services to UK mid and small-cap companies. This focus on a specific market segment was somewhat unique at the time and set Peel Hunt apart from larger, more generalised investment banks. The firm's approach centered on building strong, lasting relationships with its clients, emphasising deep sector expertise, and providing tailored financial solutions. This dedication to serving a niche market effectively has been a defining characteristic of Peel Hunt since its inception.

What's the mission of the company?

The mission of Peel Hunt LLP is focused on "guiding and nurturing people through the evolution of business"​​. This mission statement highlights their commitment to supporting and advising their clients and stakeholders as the business landscape changes and evolves.

What's the company's flagship product and what makes it unique?

Peel Hunt LLP, as an investment bank, doesn't offer a "flagship product" in the traditional sense like a tech or consumer goods company. Instead, their primary offerings are financial services, specifically tailored to the mid and small-cap sectors in the UK. What makes Peel Hunt unique is its specialised focus on these market segments, providing expert advice and services in equity research, sales, and trading, as well as corporate broking, advisory services, and investment banking. Their emphasis on in-depth sector knowledge, coupled with a strong commitment to independent, client-focused advice, differentiates them in the financial services industry. This approach allows them to cater effectively to a specific group of clients, creating strong, lasting relationships and a reputation for tailored, high-quality service.

What is the price of the main offering(s)?

The pricing of Peel Hunt LLP's services, such as equity research, sales and trading, corporate broking, advisory services, and investment banking, is not typically publicly disclosed or standardised. These services are highly specialised and tailored to each client's needs, and as such, their pricing would vary depending on the complexity of the service, the scope of the engagement, the market segment, and other specific requirements of each client. Generally, in investment banking, fees can be structured as fixed amounts, percentages of the transaction value, or a combination of both, and are often negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

From which place(s) are the offerings able to be purchased?

Peel Hunt LLP's financial services and offerings are primarily accessible from their offices in the United Kingdom. The firm operates predominantly within the UK market, focusing on serving UK mid and small-cap companies. Clients typically engage with Peel Hunt through their corporate offices for various services such as equity research, trading, corporate broking, advisory services, and investment banking. These services are usually procured through direct business-to-business interactions and are tailored to the specific needs of each client, rather than being available for purchase in a conventional retail sense.

From which place(s) are the offerings promoted?

Peel Hunt LLP promotes its offerings primarily in the United Kingdom, reflecting its focus on the UK mid and small-cap markets. The firm leverages various channels for promotion, including its corporate website, industry events, financial news media, and professional networking opportunities. Additionally, as an investment bank, a significant portion of its promotion and client engagement likely occurs through direct, relationship-driven business development efforts, targeting specific sectors and companies that align with their expertise and service offerings.

What's the current strategy of the company?

Peel Hunt LLP's current strategy, as outlined in their 2023 annual report and other sources, revolves around the following key priorities:

1. Extending Leading Liquidity Provision: Peel Hunt has transformed from a market maker to a key liquidity provider, trading in over 5,000 UK securities and 9,800 overseas securities. They aim to continue this growth by adding incremental liquidity, expanding and diversifying trading counterparties, developing new digital infrastructure to live stream prices to alternative venues, and establishing new strategic partnerships with larger pan-European liquidity providers​​.
2. Expanding Investment Banking Capabilities: Having evolved from a corporate broking business to a specialist UK investment bank, Peel Hunt is focusing on building its track record with mid-cap and growth companies. The firm is diversifying its client base to include both public companies and its Private Capital Markets business. Additionally, they're expanding services in areas like M&A and Debt Advisory, and integrating investment banking teams with Research & Distribution to deepen relationships with institutional investors​​.
3. Advancing as a Distribution Powerhouse: Recognised for its award-winning research and experienced distribution teams, Peel Hunt is strengthening its role as a connector between investment institutions and companies. They are deepening relationships with institutional investors, expanding market share, and enhancing their international influence and access. Notably, they've invested in North American and European distribution platforms and are planning to establish a new European office in Copenhagen​​.
4. Embedding Technology in Operations: Technology is central to Peel Hunt's business strategy. The firm is investing in and innovating digital tools and infrastructure to maintain competitive pricing and secure access to liquidity. A notable development is the spinning out of their proprietary REX platform into a standalone business, RetailBook, aimed at expanding retail participation in capital markets​​.
5. Leveraging Unique Culture for Performance: Peel Hunt's collaborative culture is seen as a key strength, fostering team collaboration and an increased focus on performance. The firm encourages cross-functional projects and initiatives to drive strategic goals. A newly launched Investment Banking graduate program exemplifies their approach to harnessing internal talent and ideas​​.

These strategic priorities highlight Peel Hunt's focus on diversification, technology integration, and deepening client relationships, positioning them well for future growth despite challenging market conditions.

Who are the key members of the team and what makes them unique?

Key members of Peel Hunt LLP's team, each bringing unique experiences and expertise, include:

1. Lucinda Riches - Chair: Lucinda Riches is the Independent Non-Executive Chair of Peel Hunt. She has a distinguished career in investment banking, previously serving as Global Head of Equity Capital Markets at UBS. Her experience spans various non-executive roles, including at Ashtead plc, Greencoat UK Wind plc, and LGT Capital Partners Group Holding Ltd​​.
2. Maria Bentley - Non-Executive Director: Maria Bentley, with over 30 years of experience in financial services and investment banking, joined Peel Hunt's board in 2022. She has held senior human resources roles at Goldman Sachs, UBS Investment Bank, and Nomura International. She also serves as a non-executive director and chair of remuneration at various firms including Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited​​.
3. Liz Blythe - Non-Executive Director: Liz Blythe, who joined the board in 2020, has a background in audit and finance, having served as Chief Internal Auditor at Skipton Building Society and Finance Director at Homeloan Management Limited. She also holds roles as a non-executive director at other firms including Together Personal Finance​​.
4. Richard Brearley - Non-Executive Director: Richard Brearley, an Independent Non-Executive Director since 2020, has a strong background in compliance. He has held senior roles at Ninety One, Macquarie, and Investec plc, covering a range of markets and business areas​​.
5. Darren Carter - Non-Executive Director: Darren Carter has been with Peel Hunt since 2004, bringing over 30 years of equity markets experience. He has held senior positions at D. E. Shaw Securities International and KBC Financial Products, and is involved with other financial firms like Praetura Ventures and Praetura Debt​​.
6. Steven Fine - Chief Executive: Steven Fine has been with Peel Hunt since 2006 and played a pivotal role in the management buy-out from KBC Bank in 2010. He has extensive experience in equity, convertible, and derivatives operations, and is a non-executive director for the Quoted Companies Alliance​​.
7. Sunil Dhall - Chief Financial & Operating Officer: Sunil Dhall has been with Peel Hunt since 2010 and previously held senior roles at KBC Financial Products and Credit Suisse. He is active in initiatives to improve socio-economic diversity in UK financial services and holds a degree in Engineering, Economics, and Management from Keble College, Oxford​​.

These individuals contribute to Peel Hunt's strategic direction and operations with their diverse experiences and specialised expertise, underscoring the firm's commitment to leadership and excellence in the financial sector.

What's the company's TAM, SAM and SOM in terms of definition and figures?

Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) are metrics used to estimate the market potential for a business or product. However, for a company like Peel Hunt LLP, which operates in the investment banking and financial services sector, these terms are less frequently used or defined with specific figures, as their market potential is largely determined by the breadth of financial services they offer and the size of the UK mid and small-cap market segments they target.

1. TAM (Total Addressable Market): The total market demand for a product or service. For Peel Hunt, this would theoretically encompass the entire UK financial services market.
2. SAM (Serviceable Available Market): The segment of the TAM within a firm's reach. For Peel Hunt, this would be the UK mid and small-cap sectors that they specialise in.
3. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): The portion of SAM that a company can capture. This depends on Peel Hunt's market share and competitive position in the UK financial services sector.

Specific figures for Peel Hunt's TAM, SAM, and SOM would require detailed market analysis and internal data, which are typically not publicly available for such specialised service sectors.

Who are the company's main peers and how are they similar and different to each other?

Peel Hunt LLP's main peers in the investment banking and financial services sector are other firms specialising in mid and small-cap markets in the UK. These would include companies like Numis Corporation, Panmure Gordon, and Shore Capital. Similarities:

• All these firms offer similar services such as equity research, corporate broking, trading, and advisory services.
• They focus on the UK market, particularly targeting mid and small-cap companies.

Differences:

• Peel Hunt distinguishes itself through its unique client-focused approach and deep sector expertise.
• The firm's emphasis on building long-term client relationships and its specialised focus on the UK mid and small-cap sector set it apart from its peers.
• Additionally, Peel Hunt's strategic priorities, like expanding its investment banking capabilities and leveraging technology, contribute to its distinct positioning in the market.

This table illustrates the differences and similarities between Peel Hunt LLP and its peers (such as Numis Corporation, Panmure Gordon, and Shore Capital):

Feature/Company	Peel Hunt LLP	Numis Corporation	Panmure Gordon	Shore Capital
Equity Research	✓	✓	✓	✓
Corporate Broking	✓	✓	✓	✓
Trading Services	✓	✓	✓	✓
Advisory Services	✓	✓	✓	✓
UK Market Focus	✓	✓	✓	✓
Mid and Small-Cap Focus	✓	✓	✓	✓
Client-Focused Approach	✓	✓/✗	✓/✗	✓/✗
Deep Sector Expertise	✓	✓/✗	✓/✗	✓/✗
Investment Banking Expansion	✓	✓/✗	✓/✗	✓/✗
Technology Emphasis	✓	✓/✗	✓/✗	✓/✗

✓ = Feature is present ✗ = Feature may vary or be less emphasised

This table highlights that while these firms share a core set of services and market focus, differences emerge in their approach, emphasis on expansion, and technology integration. Peel Hunt, for example, is particularly known for its client-focused approach and emphasis on technology.

Financials

The company was incorporated on 11th August 2011.

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50
Period end date	31/03/2012	31/03/2013	31/03/2014	31/03/2015	31/03/2016	31/03/2017	31/03/2018	31/03/2019	31/03/2020	31/03/2021	31/03/2022	31/03/2023	31/03/2024	31/03/2025	31/03/2026	31/03/2027	31/03/2028	31/03/2029	31/03/2030	31/03/2031	31/03/2032	31/03/2033	31/03/2034	31/03/2035	31/03/2036	31/03/2037	31/03/2038	31/03/2039	31/03/2040	31/03/2041	31/03/2042	31/03/2043	31/03/2044	31/03/2045	31/03/2046	31/03/2047	31/03/2048	31/03/2049	31/03/2050	31/03/2051	31/03/2052	31/03/2053	31/03/2054	31/03/2055	31/03/2056	31/03/2057	31/03/2058	31/03/2059	31/03/2060	31/03/2061
Period duration (days)	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	365	366
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Profit and loss
Revenue								95,596	196,785	131,022
Administrative expenses
Profit from operations
Finance income
Finance expense
Other income
Profit for the year before members' remuneration
Members' remuneration charged as an expense
Total comprehensive income for the year available for discretionary division among members
Balance sheet
Assets
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Intangible assets
Right-of-use assets
Deferred tax asset
Total non-current assets
Current assets
Securities held for trading
Market and client debtors
Trade and other debtors
Amounts due from members
Cash and cash equivalents
Total current assets
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Securities held for trading
Market and client creditors
Amounts due to members
Trade and other creditors
Loans and borrowings
Provisions
Total current liabilities
Net current assets
Non-current liabilities
Lease liabiliites
Loans and borrowings
Total non-current liabilities
Net assets
Cash flow
Net cash (used in) / generated from operations
Cash flow from investing activities
Purchase of tangible assets
Purchase of intangible assets
Disposal of investments not held for trading
Net cash used in investing activities
Cash flow from financing activities
Capital introduced
(Decrease)/increase in borrowings
Lease Liability payments
Interest paid
Net cash (used in) / generated from financing activities
Net (decrease) / increase in cash and cash equivalents
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the period
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the the period
Other information
Research payments and execution commission
Execution services revenue
Investment banking revenue
Key metrics
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)
Tax rate (%)
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%)
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%)
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%)

What are the assumptions used to estimate the financial forecasts?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Revenue
What's the estimated current size of the total addressable market?	$400,000,000,000	Here, the total addressable market (TAM) is defined as the global HR tech market, and based on a number of assumptions, it is estimated that the size of the market as of today (7th November 2023), in terms of revenue, is $400 billion.
What is the estimated company lifespan?	50 years	Currently, Peel Hunt employs around 77, making the company a small organisation (less than 10,000 employees). That said, given the company's mission, we expect the company to grow to a large organisation, and research shows that the average lifespan of a large corporation is around 50 years.
What's the estimated annual growth rate of the total addressable market over the lifecycle of the company?	3%	Research shows that the growth rate of the global HR tech market (i.e. the total addressable market) is similar to the growth rate of global gross domestic product, which has averaged (medium) around 3% per year in the last 20 years (2001 to 2022).
What's the estimated company peak market share?	1%	The Stockhub users estimate that especially given the leadership of the company, the peak market share of Peel Hunt is around 0.50%, and, therefore, suggests using the share amount here. As of 7th November 2023, Peel Hunt's current share of the market is estimated at around 0.00068%.
Which distribution function do you want to use to estimate company revenue?	Gaussian	Research suggests that the revenue pattern of companies is similar to the pattern produced by the Gaussian distribution function (i.e. the revenue distribution is bell shaped), so the Stockhub users suggest using that function here.
What's the estimated standard deviation of company revenue?	5 years	Another way of asking this question is this way: within how many years either side of the mean does 68% of revenue occur? Based on Peel Hunt's current estimated revenue amount (i.e. $2.7 million) and Peel Hunt's estimated lifespan (i.e. 50 years) and Peel Hunt's estimated current stage of its lifecycle (i.e. introduction stage), the Stockhub users suggest using five years (i.e. 68% of all sales happen within five years either side of the mean year), so that's what's used here.
Growth stages
How many main stages of growth is the company expected to go through?	4 stages	Research suggests that a company typically goes through four distinct stages of cash flow growth. Research also shows that incorporating those stages into the discounted cash flow model improves the quality of the model and, ultimately, the quality of the value estimation. In addition, research shows that a key way to determine the stage which a company is in is by examining the cash flow patterns of the company. A summary of the economic links to cash flow patterns can be found in the appendix of this report. The Stockhub users estimate that with Peel Hunt's operating cash flows negative (-), investing cash flows negative (-) and its financing cash flows positive (+), the company is in the first stage of growth (i.e. the 'introduction' stage), and, therefore, it has a total of four main stages of growth. Note, to account for one-off events, the three-year average (median) amount was used to calculate the cash flows.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 1?	30%	Research suggests 30%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 2?	10%	Research suggests 10%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 3?	20%	Research suggests 20%.
What proportion of the company lifecycle is represented by growth stage 4?	40%	Research suggests 40%.
Growth stage 1
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	22.08%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	(78.39)%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	(0.27)%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%)	6.82%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	36.30%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	22.31%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%)	7.54%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%)	(7.54)%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 1). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 2
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	27.59%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	75.98%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	41.08%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%)	5.86%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	5.78%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	55.99%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%)	18.25%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%)	1.65%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 2). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 3
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	27.59%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	75.98%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	41.08%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%)	5.86%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	5.78%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	55.99%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%)	18.25%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%)	1.65%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 3). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Growth stage 4
Cost of goods sold as a proportion of revenue (%)	36.13%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Operating expenses as a proportion of revenue (%)	174.39%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar margin rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Tax rate (%)	(1.94)%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar rate as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Depreciation and amortisation rate (%)	47.29%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Fixed Capital Investment (FCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	6.25%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Working Capital Investment (WCInv) as a proportion of revenue (%)	2.13%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Net borrowing as a proportion of revenue (%)	0%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.
Interest expense as a proportion of revenue (%)	0%	Research suggests that it's best to use a similar amount as the one used by peers that are in the same growth stage (i.e. growth stage 4). Information on the peers and the calculation of the figure used here can be found in the appendix of this report.

Risks

As with any investment, investing in Peel Hunt carries a level of risk. Overall, based on the Peel Hunt' adjusted beta (i.e. 0.86), the degree of risk associated with an investment in Peel Hunt is 'medium'.

Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used the 25 available share price Peel Hunt data points. We note that the amount of available data observations for Peel Hunt is less than what's typically used in the five years of monthly data beta calculation (i.e. 25 observations vs. 60 observations), and accordingly, calculating the beta of such a company may be considered by many to be abnormal; however, for the benefit of simplifying investment comparisons and decision making, we believe that a single standardised risk measure is useful, and that the most appropriate measure is beta.

The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta. In addition, here, we have assumed that for an investment to be considered 'medium' risk, it must have a beta value of between 0.50 and 1.50. Further information about the beta ratings can be found in the appendix section of this report.

The key risks

Investing in Peel Hunt LLP involves several key risks:

1. The group’s business and financial performance have been and will continue to be affected by general economic conditions in the UK and other jurisdictions in which the group operates and adverse developments int he UK or global financial markets could have a detrimental impact on its earnings and profitability.
2. The group relies on the ability to attract, develop and retain highly skilled personnel.
3. Damage to the group’s reputation could cause harm to the group and its business prospects.
4. The group’s business is subject to inherent risks concerning liquidity, and this may have an adverse effect on the group’s business and profitability.
5. The group’s results of operations may be materially affected by market fluctuations and significant changes in the value of financial instruments.
6. A failure in the group’s operational systems may disrupt the group’s business operations, result in regulatory action against the group, and adversely impact the group’s reputation, business, financial condition and results of operations.
7. The group is exposed to risks relating to its underwriting activities.
8. The group is subject to the credit risk of counterparties.
9. The group's framework and policies for risk management may prove inadequate for the risks faced by its business and any failure to properly manage the risks it faces could cause harm to the group and its business prospects.
10. Failure to, or perceived failure to, appropriately manage potential conflicts of interest can adversely affect the group’s business and reputation.
11. The group's competitive advantage depends in part on its information technology.
12. The group faces significant and increasing competition in the financial services industry, including in changing markets.
13. The group may be unable to successfully implement its business strategies.
14. The group may be unable to protect its intellectual property effectively from misappropriation by others, including current and potential competitors.
15. The group operates in an extensive, strict, and frequently changing regulatory landscape and any changes to, or the group’s failure to comply with, any laws and regulations could adversely affect the Group’s business, financial condition and results of operation.
16. If employees of the group fail to comply with applicable laws, rules and regulations, including those associated with conduct risk or fail to adapt its business to new laws and regulations, the group could be subject to disciplinary actions, fines and loss of licences to provide its services.
17. The group is subject to risks relating to litigation, investigations, claims and potential liabilities under laws and regulations applicable to financial services.
18. Regulatory and other changes resulting from the UK’s exit from the EU could impact the group’s results.
19. The group’s collection, use, storage, disclosure, transfer and other processing of personal information could give rise to significant costs and liabilities, including as a result of governmental regulation, conflicting legal requirements or differing views of personal privacy rights, which may have a material and adverse impact on the group’s business, financial condition and results of operations.
20. The group is subject to anti-bribery and corruption and anti-money laundering laws and regulations and sanctions and embargo programmes.
21. The group may be negatively impacted by the failure of its information technology and communications systems and related operational processes, including through cyberattacks.
22. The group’s insurance coverage may not be adequate to cover all possible losses that it could suffer and its insurance costs may increase.
23. A change in taxation legislation, case law or practice of tax authorities or investigations by tax authorities in key jurisdictions could materially increase the group’s costs.
24. An active trading market for the ordinary shares may not develop or be sustained.
25. There are no guarantees that the company will pay dividends or regarding the level of any such dividends.
26. Substantial future sales of ordinary shares could impact their market price.
27. The market price of the ordinary shares may fluctuate significantly in response to a number of factors, many of which will be out of the company's control.
28. Future issues of new ordinary shares may dilute the holdings of shareholders.
29. Shareholders may be diluted as a result of future equity offerings to the extent they do not participate or are excluded from participating.
30. General risks of investing in shares traded on AIM.
31. Regulatory approvals are required to increase a shareholding in the company above certain percentage thresholds of its capital.
32. Management and Governance: Less than half of Peel Hunt's directors are independent, and there's a relatively inexperienced board with an average tenure of only 2.2 years. Additionally, CEO Steven Fine's compensation has been a point of discussion, being above average for companies of similar size in the UK market.
33. Business Model and Strategy: Peel Hunt's unique business model includes serving retail investors through intermediaries, which diversifies its business and reduces exposure to the capital markets cycle.

Valuation

What's the expected return of an investment in the company?edit

The Stockhub users estimate that the expected return of an investment in the company over the next five years is 12x, which equates to an annual return of 67%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £1,302,058 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

Assuming that a suitable return level over five years is 67% per year or less, and Peel Hunt achieves its expected return level (of 67%), then an investment in the company is considered to be an 'suitable' one.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which valuation model do you want to use?	Discounted cash flow	Research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that he Stockhub users suggest to use here; nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the using the relative valuation approach (the valuation based on the relative approach can be found in the appendix of this report). Peel Hunt has never paid cash dividends, and on 7th February 2022, it said that it currently does not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest using the free cash flow valuation method (rather than the dividend discount model).
Which financial forecasts to use?	Stockhub	The only available long-term forecasts (i.e. >15 years) are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so the Stockhub users suggest using those.
Growth stage 1
Discount rate (%)	30%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	70%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 1) is 70%.
Growth stage 2
Discount rate (%)	15%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	80%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 2) is 80%.
Growth stage 3
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 3) is 100%.
Growth stage 4
Discount rate (%)	10%	There are two key risk parameters for a firm that need to be estimated: its cost of equity and its cost of debt. A key way to estimate the cost of equity is by looking at the beta (or betas) of the company in question, the cost of debt from a measure of default risk (an actual or synthetic rating) and apply the market value weights for debt and equity to come up with the cost of capital.
Probability of success (%)	100%	Research suggests that a suitable rate for a company in this growth stage (i.e. stage 4) is 100%.
Other key inputs
What's the current value of the company?	£21.98 million	The Stockhub users calculate the valuation as of £21.98 million (for the calculation, see the 'Peel Hunt Series B valuation calculation' table in this report. However, according to Dealroom.co estimates, the firm valuation is between $30m and $46m ($38 million mean) as of January 2023. The valuation is based on either of: the publicly disclosed value, or an estimate that is based on the last funding round amount, using similar rounds as benchmarks.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and five years time	Research suggests that following a market crash, the average amount of time it takes for the price of a stock market to return to its pre-crash level (i.e. the recovery period) is at least three years. Accordingly, Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
Which valuation recommendation method do you want to use?	Relative	There's two main types of valuation recommendation methods, relative and absolute. The relative method determines the investment recommendation relative to other investments (e.g. the investment is "suitable" if it's within say the top 10% of the investment universe in terms of investment returns), whereas the absolute method determines the recommendation based on a fixed return amount (e.g. the investment is "suitable" if it returns 50% or more). Assuming sufficient data, the Stockhub users suggest using the relative method.
Which top proportion of the investment universe constitutes a "suitable" rating?	10%	The proportion depends on the user's preference. That said, typically, the higher the proportion, the higher the risk associated with the investment.
Which universe of investments do you want to use?	All investments	If the main objective of the user is to maximise investment returns, then the Stockhub users suggest using 'all investments' as the investment universe.

Sensitivity analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Peel Hunt investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

1. The size of the total addressable market (the default size is $400 billion);
2. Peel Hunt peak market share (the default share is 0.50%); and
3. The discount rate (the default time-weighted average rate is 16.50%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Peel Hunt investment is shown in the table below.

Peel Hunt investment expected return sensitivity analysis

Main input	50% worse	Unchanged	50% better
The discount rate	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%
The size of the total addressable market	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%
Peel Hunt peak market share	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%

Actions

To invest in Peel Hunt, click here.

To contact Peel Hunt, click here.

Appendix

Relative valuation approach

As noted earlier in this report, research suggests that in terms of estimating the expected return of an investment over a period of 12-months or more, the approach that is more accurate is the discounted cash flow approach, so that's the approach that Stockhub suggests using to determine the estimated value of the company (the valuation based on the discounted cash flow approach can be found in the valuation section of this report); nevertheless, for completeness purposes, separately, the valuation of the company is also estimated using the relative valuation approach.

What's the expected return of an investment in Peel Hunt using the relative valuation approach?

Stockhub estimates that the expected return of an investment in Peel Hunt over the next five years is 38x, which equates to an annual return of 108%. In other words, an £100,000 investment in the company is expected to return £3,933,322 in five years time. The assumptions used to estimate the return figure can be found in the table below.

What are the assumptions used to estimate the return figure?

Key inputs

Description	Value	Commentary
Which type of multiple do you want to use?	Growth-adjusted EV/sales	For the numerator, the Stockhub users believe that to account for the different financial leverage levels of its peers, it's best to use enterprise value (EV), rather than price. For the denominator, the Stockhub users believe that because it expects Peel Hunt to reinvest almost all of its revenue back into the business over the five year forecast period and therefore its earnings are expected to be abnormally low over the period, it's best to use sales. Accordingly, the Stockhub users suggest valuing its company using the EV/sales ratio. However, the Stockhub users think that to take into account the different business lifecycle stages of its peers, the most suitable valuation multiple to use is the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, rather than the EV/sales multiple.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales figure, which year to you want to use?	Year 5	Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, for the sales growth figure, which year(s) do you want to use?	Year 6, from now	Stockhub suggests that for the sales growth figure, it's best to use Year 6.
In regards to the growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple, what multiple figure do you want to use?	0.18x	In Stockhub's view, Peel Hunt closest peer(s) is Sova Assessment Limited.
Which financial forecasts to use?	Stockhub users	The only available forecasts are the ones that are supplied by the Stockhub users (the forecasts can be found in the financials section of this report), so Stockhub suggests using those.
What's the current value of the company?	£21.98 million	The Stockhub users calculate the valuation as of £21.98 million (for the calculation, see the 'Peel Hunt Series B valuation calculation' table in this report). However, according to Dealroom.co estimates, the firm valuation is between $30m and $46m ($38 million mean) as of January 2023. The Dealroom valuation is based on either of: the publicly disclosed value, or an estimate that is based on the last funding round amount, using similar rounds as benchmarks.
Which time period do you want to use to estimate the expected return?	Between now and five years time	Stockhub suggests that to account for general market cyclicity, it's best to estimate the expected return of the company between now and five years time.
Which valuation recommendation method do you want to use?	Relative	There's two main types of valuation recommendation methods, relative and absolute. The relative method determines the investment recommendation relative to other investments (e.g. the investment is "suitable" if it's within say the top 10% of the investment universe in terms of investment returns), whereas the absolute method determines the recommendation based on a fixed return amount (e.g. the investment is "suitable" if it returns 50% or more). Assuming sufficient data, the Stockhub users suggest using the relative method.
Which top proportion of the investment universe constitutes a "suitable" rating?	10%	The proportion depends on the user's preference. That said, typically, the higher the proportion, the higher the risk associated with the investment.
Which universe of investments do you want to use?	All investments	If the main objective of the user is to maximise investment returns, then the Stockhub users suggest using 'all investments' as the investment universe.

Sensitivity analysis

The main inputs that result in the greatest change in the expected return of the Peel Hunt investment are, in order of importance (from highest to lowest):

1. The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple (the default multiple 0.18);
2. Peel Hunt Year 5 sales figure (the default figure is £48.74 million); and
3. Peel Hunt Year 6 sales growth rate (the default rate is 98.5%).

The impact of a 50% change in those main inputs to the expected return of the Peel Hunt investment is shown in the table below.

Peel Hunt investment expected return sensitivity analysis

Main input	50% worse	Unchanged	50% better
The growth-adjusted EV/sales multiple	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%
Peel Hunt Year 5 sales figure	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%
Peel Hunt Year 6 sales growth rate	ccc%	ccc%	ccc%

Share capital

Number of shares currently in issue: 122,807,085.

Shares not in public hands: 51.6%.

Significant shareholders (above 3% shareholding)

Institution	Registered holding of ordinary shares	% of total issued share capital
Darren Carter	10,189,585	8.3%
Gresham House Asset Management	8,093,809	6.6%
Steven Fine	5,577,351	4.5%
Peel Hunt Share Trust	5,528,728	4.5%
Unicorn Asset Management Limited	4,368,860	3.6%
Iain Morgan	4,206,689	3.4%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited	4,098,877	3.3%
Schroder Investment Management Limited	3,947,368	3.2%

The aggregate number of Ordinary Shares subject to lock-up in each of the second year following Admission: 33,346,520 Ordinary Shares.

The aggregate number of Ordinary Shares subject to lock-up in each of the third year following Admission: 21,932,985 Ordinary Shares.

The aggregate number of Ordinary Shares subject to lock-up in each of the fourth year following Admission: 10,858,688 Ordinary Shares.

Last updated on 10 August 2023.

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Economic links to cash flow patterns

Cash flow type	Introduction	Growth	Shake out	Mature	Decline
Operating	-	+	+/-	+	-
Investing	-	-	+/-	-	+
Financing	+	+	+/-	-	+/-

Beta risk profile

Beta value	Risk rating
0 to 0.50	Low
0.50 to 1.50	Medium
1.50 to 3.00	High
3.00 and above	Extremely high

Peel Hunt adjusted beta calculation

Date	iShares MSCI World ETF unit price (USD)	Peel Hunt share price (GBP)	iShares MSCI World ETF unit price change (%)	Peel Hunt share price change (%)
01/11/2018	86.21	N/A
01/12/2018	78.87	N/A	-8.51%	N/A
01/01/2019	84.96	N/A	7.72%	N/A
01/02/2019	87.49	N/A	2.98%	N/A
01/03/2019	88.79	N/A	1.49%	N/A
01/04/2019	92.09	N/A	3.72%	N/A
01/05/2019	86.76	N/A	-5.79%	N/A
01/06/2019	91.02	N/A	4.91%	N/A
01/07/2019	91.86	N/A	0.92%	N/A
01/08/2019	89.84	N/A	-2.20%	N/A
01/09/2019	91.78	N/A	2.16%	N/A
01/10/2019	94.12	N/A	2.55%	N/A
01/11/2019	96.76	N/A	2.80%	N/A
01/12/2019	98.78	N/A	2.09%	N/A
01/01/2020	97.73	N/A	-1.06%	N/A
01/02/2020	89.67	N/A	-8.25%	N/A
01/03/2020	77.93	N/A	-13.09%	N/A
01/04/2020	86.36	N/A	10.82%	N/A
01/05/2020	90.70	N/A	5.03%	N/A
01/06/2020	92.14	N/A	1.59%	N/A
01/07/2020	96.65	N/A	4.89%	N/A
01/08/2020	102.96	N/A	6.53%	N/A
01/09/2020	99.52	N/A	-3.34%	N/A
01/10/2020	96.53	N/A	-3.00%	N/A
01/11/2020	108.94	N/A	12.86%	N/A
01/12/2020	112.41	N/A	3.19%	N/A
01/01/2021	111.49	N/A	-0.82%	N/A
01/02/2021	114.27	N/A	2.49%	N/A
01/03/2021	118.49	N/A	3.69%	N/A
01/04/2021	123.61	N/A	4.32%	N/A
01/05/2021	125.60	N/A	1.61%	N/A
01/06/2021	126.57	N/A	0.77%	N/A
01/07/2021	128.83	N/A	1.79%	N/A
01/08/2021	132.02	N/A	2.48%	N/A
01/09/2021	126.46	N/A	-4.21%	N/A
01/10/2021	133.84	227.00	5.84%	N/A
01/11/2021	131.10	210.50	-2.05%	-7.27%
01/12/2021	135.32	201.00	3.22%	-4.51%
01/01/2022	128.32	175.00	-5.17%	-12.94%
01/02/2022	124.58	125.50	-2.91%	-28.29%
01/03/2022	128.16	124.00	2.87%	-1.20%
01/04/2022	117.42	121.50	-8.38%	-2.02%
01/05/2022	117.94	119.00	0.44%	-2.06%
01/06/2022	106.88	114.00	-9.38%	-4.20%
01/07/2022	115.57	103.50	8.13%	-9.21%
01/08/2022	110.28	101.00	-4.58%	-2.42%
01/09/2022	99.95	88.00	-9.37%	-12.87%
01/10/2022	107.42	85.50	7.47%	-2.84%
01/11/2022	115.44	83.00	7.47%	-2.92%
01/12/2022	109.25	85.00	-5.36%	2.41%
01/01/2023	117.01	107.00	7.10%	25.88%
01/02/2023	113.98	106.00	-2.59%	-0.93%
01/03/2023	117.67	106.00	3.24%	0.00%
01/04/2023	119.79	115.00	1.80%	8.49%
01/05/2023	118.60	104.50	-0.99%	-9.13%
01/06/2023	124.52	103.00	4.99%	-1.44%
01/07/2023	128.54	103.00	3.23%	0.00%
01/08/2023	125.70	102.50	-2.21%	-0.49%
01/09/2023	120.17	83.00	-4.40%	-19.02%
01/10/2023	117.11	80.00	-2.55%	-3.61%
24/10/2023	122.84	90.50	4.89%	13.13%

Peel Hunt beta and adjusted beta value

	Beta	Adjusted beta	Comment(s)
Consistent (monthly) intervals between data points	0.79	0.86	Here, when there is no valuation event, we have assumed that the share price is the same as the previous month, and, therefore, there has been no change in the share price. For example, there was no Peel Hunt valuation event in January 2022, so we have assumed that the valuation of Peel Hunt is the same in January 2022 as the previous month of December 2020, and, therefore, the share price change in January is 0%.

Cost of equity

Cost of equity (%)

Input	Input value	Additional information
Risk-free rate (%)	5.061%	Here, the risk free rate is the US 30 year treasury bond, and is calculated as at 26th October 2023. Research suggests that for the risk-free rate, it's best to use one that has the same or similar maturity to the estimated remaining lifespan of the company. Here, we have assumed that the estimated lifespan of the company is 50 years, so we have used the longest maturity, which is 30 years.
Beta	0.86	Here, to estimate the adjusted beta, we used the iShares MSCI World ETF to represent the market portfolio; and in terms of the time period and frequency of observations, we used five years of monthly data (i.e. 60 observations in total), which is supported by a study and is the most common choice. The beta value in a future period has been found to be on average closer to the mean value of 1.0, and because valuation is forward-looking, it is logical to adjust the raw beta so it more accurately predicts a future beta.
Equity risk premium (%)	7.13%	Here, the equity risk premium is in relation to the global region, and is calculated as at 1st July 2023. Research suggests that for the region of equity risk premium, it's best to use one that is the same or similar to the region of the beta market portfolio. Here, the region of the beta market portfolio is the world/global, so we have used the world/global region for the equity risk premium.
Cost of equity (%)	11.193%	Cost of equity = Risk-free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium.