Editing Pfizer Inc.

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== Sensitivity Analysis ==
== Sensitivity Analysis ==
Sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes and risks associated with models which are based on a wide range of assumptions. As such, it is crucial to be implemented for models, such as DDM and DCF.  
Sensitivity analysis provides valuable insights into the potential outcomes and risks associated with models which are based on a wide range of assumptions. As such, it is crucial to be implemented for models, such as DDM and DCF.  
 
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 1.jpg|thumb|380x380px|Sensitivity table 1]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 1.jpg|Sensitivity table 1]]
 
For the DDM model, stage 1 growth rate and cost of equity were selected for the sensitivity analysis table. As expected, when cost of equity increases, the intrinsic value per share decreases and when growth rate increases, intrinsic value per share increases. Furthermore, the relationship between the two different growth rates was tested.
For the DDM model, stage 1 growth rate and cost of equity were selected for the sensitivity analysis table. As expected, when cost of equity increases, the intrinsic value per share decreases and when growth rate increases, intrinsic value per share increases. Furthermore, the relationship between the two different growth rates was tested.
 
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 3.jpg|thumb|383x383px|Sensitivity table 2]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 3.jpg|Sensitivity table 2]]
 
Under our bull case (stage 1 growth rate = 3.75%), intrinsic value per share rises to $32.83, whereas under our bear case (stage 1 growth rate = 1.25%) intrinsic value per share drops to $29.45. It is observed that changes in stage 2 growth rate affect the outcome much more than changes in stage 1 growth rate. Therefore, value per share using DDM is more sensitive to changes in stage 2 growth rate compared to changes in stage 1 growth rate. That is due to the nature of this model, as stage 1 growth rate is limited to a specific time frame while stage 2 growth rate (or perpetual growth rate of dividend) is typically used to capture the long-term growth of prospects of the company. Since it assumes growth into perpetuity, even small changes can have a significant impact on the stock's value.
Under our bull case (stage 1 growth rate = 3.75%), intrinsic value per share rises to $32.83, whereas under our bear case (stage 1 growth rate = 1.25%) intrinsic value per share drops to $29.45. It is observed that changes in stage 2 growth rate affect the outcome much more than changes in stage 1 growth rate. Therefore, value per share using DDM is more sensitive to changes in stage 2 growth rate compared to changes in stage 1 growth rate. That is due to the nature of this model, as stage 1 growth rate is limited to a specific time frame while stage 2 growth rate (or perpetual growth rate of dividend) is typically used to capture the long-term growth of prospects of the company. Since it assumes growth into perpetuity, even small changes can have a significant impact on the stock's value.
 
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 5.jpg|thumb|380x380px|Sensitivity table-DCF variables]]
[[File:Screenshot 2023-07-11 5.jpg|Sensitivity table-DCF variables]]
 
For the DCF model, discount rate and terminal growth rate were selected for the sensitivity analysis table and revenue growth was used for the scenario analysis. As expected, discount rate and value per share are negatively related, whereas terminal growth rate and value per share move in the same direction.
For the DCF model, discount rate and terminal growth rate were selected for the sensitivity analysis table and revenue growth was used for the scenario analysis. As expected, discount rate and value per share are negatively related, whereas terminal growth rate and value per share move in the same direction.


Regarding scenario analysis, three different cases were used in order to come up with the results. Our base case was highlighted above, whereas for our bull and bear cases changes were made in the revenue growth line. Revenue growth line for the downside case was projected to be -30%, -20%, -7%, 10%, 10% for the next 5 years. Revenue growth line for the upside case was projected to be -30%, -15%, 5%, 10%, 10%, implying that a significant number of products that are in the first stages will get approved. Under our upside case, Pfizer's share price would be worth $45.35, while under our downside case, Pfizer's share price would be worth $24.47.
Regarding scenario analysis, three different cases were used in order to come up with the results. Our base case was highlighted above, whereas for our bull and bear cases changes were made in the revenue growth line. Revenue growth line for the downside case was projected to be -30%, -20%, -7%, 10%, 10% for the next 5 years. Revenue growth line for the upside case was projected to be -30%, -15%, 5%, 10%, 10%, implying that a significant number of products that are in the first stages will get approved. Under our upside case, Pfizer's share price would be worth $45.35, while under our downside case, Pfizer's share price would be worth $24.47.  
 
== Risks ==
== Risks ==


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