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Shopify Inc.
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== Valuation == {| class="wikitable" !'''DCF''' ! '''2018''' ! '''2019''' ! '''2020''' !'''2021''' !'''2022''' !'''2023''' !'''2024''' !'''2025''' !'''2026''' !'''2027''' | |- |'''Revenue''' |1,073 |1,578 |2,929 |4,612 |5,600 |8,562 |13,090 |20,014 |30,599 |46,783 | |- |% growth | - |47.06% |85.61% |57.46% |21.42% |52.89% |52.89% |52.89% |52.89% |52.89% | |- | | | | | | |0 |0 |0 |0 |0 | |- |'''EBIT''' | -88 | -136 |129 |328 | -664 |347 |367 |388 |410 |434 | |- |% margin | -8.20% | -8.62% |4.40% |7.11% | -11.86% |5.76% |5.76% |5.76% |5.76% |5.76% | |- | | | | | | |0 |0 |0 |0 |0 | |- |'''Taxes''' |0 |29 | -79 |226 | -162 |231 |235 |240 |245 |250 | |- |% of EBIT |0.00% | -21.32% | -61.24% |68.90% |24.40% |2.00% |2.00% |2.00% |2.00% |2.00% | |- | | | | | | |0 |0 |0 |0 |0 | |- |'''EBIAT''' | -88 | -165 |208 |102 | -502 |116 |132 |148 |166 |184 | |- | | | | | | | | | | | | |- |'''D&A''' |27 |36 |70 |66 |91 |93 |95 |96 |98 |100 | |- |% of sales |2.52% |2.28% |2.39% |1.43% |1.63% |1.93% |1.93% |1.93% |1.93% |1.93% | |- | | | | | | |0 |0 |0 |0 |0 | |- |'''Capex''' | -42 | -62 | -42 | -51 | -50 |(49) |(48) |(47) |(46) |(46) | |- |% of slaes | -3.87% | -3.93% | -1.43% | -1.11% | -0.89% | -1.84% | -1.84% | -1.84% | -1.84% | -1.84% | |- | | | | | | |0 |0 |0 |0 |0 | |- |'''Changes in NWC''' | | -56 | -20 | -100 | -161 |(199) |(304) |(464) |(710) |(1,085) | |- |% of sales | | -3.55% | -0.68% | -2.17% | -2.88% | -2.32% | -2.32% | -2.32% | -2.32% | -2.32% | |- | | | | | | | | | | | | |- |'''Unlevered FCF''' | | -135 |256 |217 | -300 |359 |482 |661 |927 |1,324 | |- | | | | | | | | | | | | |- |Year count | | | | | |0.52 |1.52 |2.52 |3.52 |4.52 | |- |Discount factor | | | | | |0.94 |0.82 |0.72 |0.64 |0.56 |'''TV''' |- |'''Present value of FCF''' | | | | | |'''335''' |'''396''' |'''479''' |'''591''' |'''742''' |'''7988.051624''' |} {| class="wikitable" | colspan="2" |'''WACC''' |- !'''Risk free rate (5 year US Bond)''' |4.17% |- !'''Market risk premium''' |4.72% |- !'''Levered beta''' |2.043 |- !'''Cost of equity''' |13.81% |- !'''Cost of debt''' |4.72% |- !'''Share price''' |65.02 |- !'''Shares outstanding (latest reported)''' |1,266.27 |- !'''Market capitalization''' |82332 |- !'''Total debt''' |1396 |- !'''Total capital''' |83728 |- !'''% debt capital''' |1.67% |- !'''% equity capital''' |98.33% |- !'''Internally calculated WACC''' |13.66% |- !'''Terminal growth rate''' |'''4%''' |} {| class="wikitable" ! ! !'''% of EV''' |- !'''Present vale of FCF''' |2544 |24.15% |- !'''Present value of TV''' |7988 |75.85% |- ! | | |- !'''Enterprise value''' |10,532 | |- ! | | |- !'''(-) Net Debt''' | -252.00 | |- !'''Equity Value''' |10784 | |- !'''Shares''' |1,266 | |- !'''Share Price''' |'''8.52''' | |- !'''Current Share Price''' |'''65.02''' | |} ==== Sensitivity Analysis ==== {| class="wikitable" ! ! ! ! ! !WACC ! ! ! |- ! |8.516 |12.00% |12.50% |13.00% |13.66% |14.00% |14.50% |15.00% |- ! |2.5% |$ 9.054 |$ 8.561 |$ 8.116 |$ 7.590 |$ 7.344 |$ 7.007 |$ 6.698 |- !Terminal |3.0% |$ 9.465 |$ 8.925 |$ 8.440 |$ 7.870 |$ 7.604 |$ 7.242 |$ 6.911 |- !Growth |3.5% |$ 9.923 |$ 9.328 |$ 8.797 |$ 8.178 |$ 7.890 |$ 7.499 |$ 7.143 |- !Rate |4.0% |$ 10.439 |$ 9.780 |$ 9.195 |$ 8.517 |$ 8.204 |$ 7.780 |$ 7.396 |- ! |4.5% |$ 11.023 |$ 10.288 |$ 9.639 |$ 8.894 |$ 8.551 |$ 8.089 |$ 7.672 |- ! |5.0% |$ 11.692 |$ 10.863 |$ 10.139 |$ 9.314 |$ 8.936 |$ 8.431 |$ 7.977 |} === Comparables === {| class="wikitable" | |'''SHOP''' |'''SNOW''' |'''MDB''' |'''VRSN''' |'''NET''' |'''AKAM''' |- |'''Company Name''' |Shopify Inc. |Snowflake Inc. |MongoDB, Inc. |VeriSign, Inc. |Cloudflare, Inc. |Akamai Technologies, Inc. |- |'''Industry''' |Internet Services and Infrastructure |Internet Services and Infrastructure |Internet Services and Infrastructure |Internet Services and Infrastructure |Internet Services and Infrastructure |Internet Services and Infrastructure |- |'''Price''' |66.17 |174.8 |410.58 |211.88 |65.39 |92.8 |- |'''Market Cap''' |84.00B |57.33B |28.92B |22.27B |22.10B |14.06B |- |'''Enterprise Value''' |80.54B |52.56B |28.25B |23.04B |21.96B |16.24B |- |'''Revenue''' |5.90B |2.27B |1.37B |1.44B |1.05B |3.63B |- |'''Revenue Growth (YoY)''' |22.30% |60.46% |39.82% |6.77% |44.17% |3.02% |- |'''Revenue Per Share''' |4.65 |7.06 |19.74 |13.53 |3.21 |22.98 |- |'''ROE''' | -21.03% | -15.95% | -44.00% |NM | -32.55% |11.51% |- |'''ROA''' | -8.25% | -12.47% | -13.45% |42.00% | -8.11% |6.70% |- |'''Price/Sales''' |14.23 |24.76 |20.80 |15.66 |20.37 |4.04 |}
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